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세계·중동

2026년 말 이란 지도자?

Market icon
세계·중동

2026년 말 이란 지도자?

모즈타바 하메네이 67.3%

레자 팔라비 10%

모하마드-바게르 갈리바프 6.7%

하산 로하니 4.4%

Polymarket

$6,511,585 거래량

모즈타바 하메네이 67.3%

레자 팔라비 10%

모하마드-바게르 갈리바프 6.7%

하산 로하니 4.4%

Polymarket

$6,511,585 거래량

모즈타바 하메네이

$1,520,613 거래량

67%

레자 팔라비

$153,341 거래량

10%

모하마드-바게르 갈리바프

$168,517 거래량

7%

하산 로하니

$280,159 거래량

4%

국가원수 없음

$369,656 거래량

3%

하산 호메이니

$731,748 거래량

2%

아바스 아라그치

$104,322 거래량

2%

알리레자 아라피

$780,106 거래량

1%

아흐마드 바히디

$200,123 거래량

1%

모함마드 하타미

$246,438 거래량

1%

사이드 잘릴리

$47,395 거래량

1%

마르얌 라자비

$256,925 거래량

1%

마수드 페제쉬키안

$244,586 거래량

<1%

무함마드 미르바키리

$275,945 거래량

<1%

사데흐 라리자니

$175,968 거래량

<1%

나비드 쇼말리

$54,813 거래량

<1%

마무드 아마디네자드

$51,221 거래량

<1%

알리 아스가르 헤자지

$76,401 거래량

<1%

하산 샤리아트마다리

$150,198 거래량

<1%

마수드 라자비

$23,683 거래량

<1%

세예드 호세인 무사비안

$34,176 거래량

<1%

레자 피르자데

$28,358 거래량

<1%

무스타파 히즈리

$21,009 거래량

<1%

알리 모타하리

$52,028 거래량

<1%

골람알리 하다드아델

$36,754 거래량

<1%

모스타파 포르모하마디

$68,508 거래량

<1%

사데그 마흐술리

$48,612 거래량

<1%

모흐센 아라키

$31,694 거래량

<1%

나시르 호세이니

$15,944 거래량

<1%

아흐마드 호세이니 호라사니

$25,482 거래량

<1%

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Trader consensus heavily favors Mojtaba Khamenei as Iran's Supreme Leader by end of 2026, reflecting the Assembly of Experts' swift March 2026 appointment following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's February 28 assassination in Israeli-U.S. strikes, despite U.S. intelligence reports of the late leader's private doubts about his son's qualifications and personal issues. IRGC hardliners, leveraging Mojtaba's wartime networks, overrode resistance to install him amid wartime urgency, with his low public profile—statements read by proxies post-injury—yet no verified challenges to his authority six weeks later. Reza Pahlavi trails at 9.5% on exile advocacy for regime transition and monarchy restoration calls amid ceasefire fragility and protests, while parliamentary speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf and ex-president Hassan Rouhani lag due to sidelined roles in the IRGC-dominated succession. Ongoing war risks and Assembly dynamics could shift odds.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
거래량
$6,511,585
종료일
2026.12.31
마켓 개설일
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Trader consensus heavily favors Mojtaba Khamenei as Iran's Supreme Leader by end of 2026, reflecting the Assembly of Experts' swift March 2026 appointment following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's February 28 assassination in Israeli-U.S. strikes, despite U.S. intelligence reports of the late leader's private doubts about his son's qualifications and personal issues. IRGC hardliners, leveraging Mojtaba's wartime networks, overrode resistance to install him amid wartime urgency, with his low public profile—statements read by proxies post-injury—yet no verified challenges to his authority six weeks later. Reza Pahlavi trails at 9.5% on exile advocacy for regime transition and monarchy restoration calls amid ceasefire fragility and protests, while parliamentary speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf and ex-president Hassan Rouhani lag due to sidelined roles in the IRGC-dominated succession. Ongoing war risks and Assembly dynamics could shift odds.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
거래량
$6,511,585
종료일
2026.12.31
마켓 개설일
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.

외부 링크에 주의하세요.

자주 묻는 질문

"2026년 말 이란 지도자?"은 32개의 가능한 결과가 있는 Polymarket의 예측 마켓으로, 트레이더들이 어떤 결과가 발생할지에 따라 주식을 매수 및 매도합니다. 현재 선두 결과는 67%의 "모즈타바 하메네이"이며, 이어서 10%의 "레자 팔라비"입니다. 가격은 실시간 크라우드소싱 확률을 반영합니다. 예를 들어 67¢에 거래되는 주식은 마켓이 해당 결과에 67%의 확률을 부여함을 의미합니다. 이 확률은 트레이더들이 새로운 진전과 정보에 반응함에 따라 지속적으로 변화합니다. 정확한 결과의 주식은 마켓 정산 시 각 $1에 교환 가능합니다.

오늘 현재 "2026년 말 이란 지도자?"은 총 $6.5 million의 거래량을 생성했습니다 마켓이 Mar 1, 2026에 시작된 이후. 이 수준의 거래 활동은 Polymarket 커뮤니티의 강한 참여를 반영하며 현재 확률이 깊은 참가자 풀에 의해 정보에 기반하도록 보장합니다. 이 페이지에서 실시간 가격 변동을 추적하고 모든 결과에 직접 거래할 수 있습니다.

"2026년 말 이란 지도자?"에서 거래하려면 이 페이지에 나열된 32개의 가용 결과를 탐색하세요. 각 결과에는 마켓의 내재 확률을 나타내는 현재 가격이 표시됩니다. 포지션을 잡으려면 가장 가능성이 높다고 생각하는 결과를 선택하고, 찬성이면 "Yes", 반대이면 "No"를 선택하고, 금액을 입력하고 "거래"를 클릭하세요. 마켓이 정산될 때 선택한 결과가 맞으면 "Yes" 주식은 각 $1을 지급합니다. 틀리면 $0을 지급합니다. 수익을 확정하거나 손실을 줄이고 싶다면 정산 전 언제든지 주식을 매도할 수 있습니다.

"2026년 말 이란 지도자?"의 현재 유력 후보는 67%의 "모즈타바 하메네이"이며, 마켓이 해당 결과에 67%의 확률을 부여합니다. 두 번째로 가까운 결과는 10%의 "레자 팔라비"입니다. 이 확률은 트레이더들의 주식 매수 및 매도에 따라 실시간으로 업데이트되어 가장 가능성 있는 결과에 대한 최신 집단 시각을 반영합니다. 새로운 정보가 나타남에 따라 확률이 어떻게 변화하는지 자주 확인하거나 이 페이지를 북마크하세요.

"2026년 말 이란 지도자?"의 정산 규칙은 각 결과가 승자로 선언되기 위해 정확히 무엇이 일어나야 하는지를 정의합니다 — 결과를 결정하는 데 사용되는 공식 데이터 소스를 포함합니다. 이 페이지의 댓글 위 "규칙" 섹션에서 완전한 정산 기준을 검토할 수 있습니다. 거래 전 규칙을 주의 깊게 읽는 것을 권장합니다. 이 마켓이 어떻게 정산되는지를 관리하는 정확한 조건, 예외 사항, 출처를 명시하고 있습니다.