Recent US-Iran nuclear talks in Pakistan concluded without agreement around April 12, with uranium enrichment emerging as the central impasse: the US demanded a 20-year pause and IAEA inspections, while Iran countered with a five-year suspension and insisted on its right to enrich, per reports from Axios and the New York Times. Tehran has restricted IAEA access to key sites like Isfahan and continues stockpiling near-weapons-grade material, as noted in the agency's February report. Vice President Vance stated Iran rejected US terms, and no new talks are scheduled despite mediation efforts by Pakistan and Oman. With just two weeks until the April 30 deadline, traders price a 67% implied probability on "No," reflecting skepticism over bridging the gap amid heightened tensions and historical negotiation failures.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$1,025,326 거래량
$1,025,326 거래량
2026.04.30
예
$1,025,326 거래량
$1,025,326 거래량
2026.04.30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Recent US-Iran nuclear talks in Pakistan concluded without agreement around April 12, with uranium enrichment emerging as the central impasse: the US demanded a 20-year pause and IAEA inspections, while Iran countered with a five-year suspension and insisted on its right to enrich, per reports from Axios and the New York Times. Tehran has restricted IAEA access to key sites like Isfahan and continues stockpiling near-weapons-grade material, as noted in the agency's February report. Vice President Vance stated Iran rejected US terms, and no new talks are scheduled despite mediation efforts by Pakistan and Oman. With just two weeks until the April 30 deadline, traders price a 67% implied probability on "No," reflecting skepticism over bridging the gap amid heightened tensions and historical negotiation failures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Mar 6, 2026, 1:26 PM ET
거래량
$1,025,326종료일
2026.04.30마켓 개설일
Mar 6, 2026, 1:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Recent US-Iran nuclear talks in Pakistan concluded without agreement around April 12, with uranium enrichment emerging as the central impasse: the US demanded a 20-year pause and IAEA inspections, while Iran countered with a five-year suspension and insisted on its right to enrich, per reports from Axios and the New York Times. Tehran has restricted IAEA access to key sites like Isfahan and continues stockpiling near-weapons-grade material, as noted in the agency's February report. Vice President Vance stated Iran rejected US terms, and no new talks are scheduled despite mediation efforts by Pakistan and Oman. With just two weeks until the April 30 deadline, traders price a 67% implied probability on "No," reflecting skepticism over bridging the gap amid heightened tensions and historical negotiation failures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$1,025,326종료일
2026.04.30마켓 개설일
Mar 6, 2026, 1:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent US-Iran nuclear talks in Pakistan concluded without agreement around April 12, with uranium enrichment emerging as the central impasse: the US demanded a 20-year pause and IAEA inspections, while Iran countered with a five-year suspension and insisted on its right to enrich, per reports from Axios and the New York Times. Tehran has restricted IAEA access to key sites like Isfahan and continues stockpiling near-weapons-grade material, as noted in the agency's February report. Vice President Vance stated Iran rejected US terms, and no new talks are scheduled despite mediation efforts by Pakistan and Oman. With just two weeks until the April 30 deadline, traders price a 67% implied probability on "No," reflecting skepticism over bridging the gap amid heightened tensions and historical negotiation failures.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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