US-Iran ceasefire and nuclear negotiations have centered on uranium enrichment as the core impasse, with recent Islamabad talks collapsing after the US proposed a 20-year moratorium and Iran countered with a five-year suspension. No agreement was reached, but officials signal potential resumption amid diplomatic pressure, including Russia's offer to manage Iran's enriched uranium stockpile and IAEA demands for full verification access to bombed facilities. Traders' 66% yes probability reflects optimism that mounting incentives—sanctions relief, frozen assets release, and de-escalation post-2025 war—could yield a public Iranian commitment to end enrichment by year-end, though Tehran insists on its enrichment rights under the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
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2026.12.31
예
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2026.12.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. US-Iran ceasefire and nuclear negotiations have centered on uranium enrichment as the core impasse, with recent Islamabad talks collapsing after the US proposed a 20-year moratorium and Iran countered with a five-year suspension. No agreement was reached, but officials signal potential resumption amid diplomatic pressure, including Russia's offer to manage Iran's enriched uranium stockpile and IAEA demands for full verification access to bombed facilities. Traders' 66% yes probability reflects optimism that mounting incentives—sanctions relief, frozen assets release, and de-escalation post-2025 war—could yield a public Iranian commitment to end enrichment by year-end, though Tehran insists on its enrichment rights under the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ET
거래량
$61,728종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. US-Iran ceasefire and nuclear negotiations have centered on uranium enrichment as the core impasse, with recent Islamabad talks collapsing after the US proposed a 20-year moratorium and Iran countered with a five-year suspension. No agreement was reached, but officials signal potential resumption amid diplomatic pressure, including Russia's offer to manage Iran's enriched uranium stockpile and IAEA demands for full verification access to bombed facilities. Traders' 66% yes probability reflects optimism that mounting incentives—sanctions relief, frozen assets release, and de-escalation post-2025 war—could yield a public Iranian commitment to end enrichment by year-end, though Tehran insists on its enrichment rights under the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$61,728종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-Iran ceasefire and nuclear negotiations have centered on uranium enrichment as the core impasse, with recent Islamabad talks collapsing after the US proposed a 20-year moratorium and Iran countered with a five-year suspension. No agreement was reached, but officials signal potential resumption amid diplomatic pressure, including Russia's offer to manage Iran's enriched uranium stockpile and IAEA demands for full verification access to bombed facilities. Traders' 66% yes probability reflects optimism that mounting incentives—sanctions relief, frozen assets release, and de-escalation post-2025 war—could yield a public Iranian commitment to end enrichment by year-end, though Tehran insists on its enrichment rights under the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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