Trader consensus prices an 81.5% probability against Iran withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) before 2027, driven by the absence of progress on a late-March parliamentary bill proposing exit amid US-Israeli airstrikes on nuclear sites that began February 28. Despite hardliner rhetoric from lawmakers like Malek Shariati and Foreign Ministry statements reviewing options due to IAEA disputes and attacks, no sessions have convened for a vote, hampered by war disruptions and the assassination of Supreme Leader Khamenei. Historical patterns of unfulfilled threats since 2004, coupled with risks of intensified UN sanctions and diplomatic isolation even from Russia and China, underpin skepticism. Ongoing US-Iran negotiations signal potential de-escalation paths ahead of any formal NPT review conference.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$109,021 거래량
$109,021 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$109,021 거래량
$109,021 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus prices an 81.5% probability against Iran withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) before 2027, driven by the absence of progress on a late-March parliamentary bill proposing exit amid US-Israeli airstrikes on nuclear sites that began February 28. Despite hardliner rhetoric from lawmakers like Malek Shariati and Foreign Ministry statements reviewing options due to IAEA disputes and attacks, no sessions have convened for a vote, hampered by war disruptions and the assassination of Supreme Leader Khamenei. Historical patterns of unfulfilled threats since 2004, coupled with risks of intensified UN sanctions and diplomatic isolation even from Russia and China, underpin skepticism. Ongoing US-Iran negotiations signal potential de-escalation paths ahead of any formal NPT review conference.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ET
거래량
$109,021종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus prices an 81.5% probability against Iran withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) before 2027, driven by the absence of progress on a late-March parliamentary bill proposing exit amid US-Israeli airstrikes on nuclear sites that began February 28. Despite hardliner rhetoric from lawmakers like Malek Shariati and Foreign Ministry statements reviewing options due to IAEA disputes and attacks, no sessions have convened for a vote, hampered by war disruptions and the assassination of Supreme Leader Khamenei. Historical patterns of unfulfilled threats since 2004, coupled with risks of intensified UN sanctions and diplomatic isolation even from Russia and China, underpin skepticism. Ongoing US-Iran negotiations signal potential de-escalation paths ahead of any formal NPT review conference.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$109,021종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices an 81.5% probability against Iran withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) before 2027, driven by the absence of progress on a late-March parliamentary bill proposing exit amid US-Israeli airstrikes on nuclear sites that began February 28. Despite hardliner rhetoric from lawmakers like Malek Shariati and Foreign Ministry statements reviewing options due to IAEA disputes and attacks, no sessions have convened for a vote, hampered by war disruptions and the assassination of Supreme Leader Khamenei. Historical patterns of unfulfilled threats since 2004, coupled with risks of intensified UN sanctions and diplomatic isolation even from Russia and China, underpin skepticism. Ongoing US-Iran negotiations signal potential de-escalation paths ahead of any formal NPT review conference.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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