Recent US-Israeli airstrikes in February-March 2026 targeted Iranian nuclear facilities like Taleghan 2 and ballistic missile sites, severely degrading capabilities according to satellite imagery and IAEA reports showing no radiation spikes or resumed proliferation-sensitive activities. A February IAEA assessment confirmed Iran's 440 kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium—near weapons-grade—but stored underground amid monitoring, with no evidence of weaponization or testing. A Pakistan-brokered ceasefire on April 7 and upcoming US-Iran negotiations in Islamabad signal de-escalation, reinforcing trader consensus at 91.5% "No" probability of a nuclear test before 2027. While hardliner calls for doctrinal reversal persist, structural barriers and diplomatic pressures maintain low odds, though late-breaking covert advances could shift sentiment.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$168,639 거래량
$168,639 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$168,639 거래량
$168,639 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent US-Israeli airstrikes in February-March 2026 targeted Iranian nuclear facilities like Taleghan 2 and ballistic missile sites, severely degrading capabilities according to satellite imagery and IAEA reports showing no radiation spikes or resumed proliferation-sensitive activities. A February IAEA assessment confirmed Iran's 440 kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium—near weapons-grade—but stored underground amid monitoring, with no evidence of weaponization or testing. A Pakistan-brokered ceasefire on April 7 and upcoming US-Iran negotiations in Islamabad signal de-escalation, reinforcing trader consensus at 91.5% "No" probability of a nuclear test before 2027. While hardliner calls for doctrinal reversal persist, structural barriers and diplomatic pressures maintain low odds, though late-breaking covert advances could shift sentiment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
거래량
$168,639종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent US-Israeli airstrikes in February-March 2026 targeted Iranian nuclear facilities like Taleghan 2 and ballistic missile sites, severely degrading capabilities according to satellite imagery and IAEA reports showing no radiation spikes or resumed proliferation-sensitive activities. A February IAEA assessment confirmed Iran's 440 kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium—near weapons-grade—but stored underground amid monitoring, with no evidence of weaponization or testing. A Pakistan-brokered ceasefire on April 7 and upcoming US-Iran negotiations in Islamabad signal de-escalation, reinforcing trader consensus at 91.5% "No" probability of a nuclear test before 2027. While hardliner calls for doctrinal reversal persist, structural barriers and diplomatic pressures maintain low odds, though late-breaking covert advances could shift sentiment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$168,639종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent US-Israeli airstrikes in February-March 2026 targeted Iranian nuclear facilities like Taleghan 2 and ballistic missile sites, severely degrading capabilities according to satellite imagery and IAEA reports showing no radiation spikes or resumed proliferation-sensitive activities. A February IAEA assessment confirmed Iran's 440 kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium—near weapons-grade—but stored underground amid monitoring, with no evidence of weaponization or testing. A Pakistan-brokered ceasefire on April 7 and upcoming US-Iran negotiations in Islamabad signal de-escalation, reinforcing trader consensus at 91.5% "No" probability of a nuclear test before 2027. While hardliner calls for doctrinal reversal persist, structural barriers and diplomatic pressures maintain low odds, though late-breaking covert advances could shift sentiment.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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