US and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February-March 2026 damaged key Iranian enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, pushing back US intelligence estimates for any potential weapon production timeline to roughly nine to twelve months as of May 2026. IAEA inspectors have had no access to enrichment facilities since mid-2025, with Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard stating in March that Iran has not resumed uranium enrichment. Iranian officials have described the highly enriched uranium stockpile as buried under rubble with no recovery plans. Ongoing diplomatic talks and absence of verified weaponization activity reinforce trader consensus against a nuclear test occurring before 2027.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$200,370 거래량
$200,370 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$200,370 거래량
$200,370 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February-March 2026 damaged key Iranian enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, pushing back US intelligence estimates for any potential weapon production timeline to roughly nine to twelve months as of May 2026. IAEA inspectors have had no access to enrichment facilities since mid-2025, with Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard stating in March that Iran has not resumed uranium enrichment. Iranian officials have described the highly enriched uranium stockpile as buried under rubble with no recovery plans. Ongoing diplomatic talks and absence of verified weaponization activity reinforce trader consensus against a nuclear test occurring before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
거래량
$200,370종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February-March 2026 damaged key Iranian enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, pushing back US intelligence estimates for any potential weapon production timeline to roughly nine to twelve months as of May 2026. IAEA inspectors have had no access to enrichment facilities since mid-2025, with Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard stating in March that Iran has not resumed uranium enrichment. Iranian officials have described the highly enriched uranium stockpile as buried under rubble with no recovery plans. Ongoing diplomatic talks and absence of verified weaponization activity reinforce trader consensus against a nuclear test occurring before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$200,370종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February-March 2026 damaged key Iranian enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, pushing back US intelligence estimates for any potential weapon production timeline to roughly nine to twelve months as of May 2026. IAEA inspectors have had no access to enrichment facilities since mid-2025, with Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard stating in March that Iran has not resumed uranium enrichment. Iranian officials have described the highly enriched uranium stockpile as buried under rubble with no recovery plans. Ongoing diplomatic talks and absence of verified weaponization activity reinforce trader consensus against a nuclear test occurring before 2027.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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