Trader consensus prices "No" at 88.5% for an Iran coup attempt by June 30, reflecting the regime's institutional resilience amid the ongoing 2026 US-Iran war, with no verified military defections or takeover bids in the past 30 days. Recent US airstrikes on Kharg Island and naval blockade considerations have pressured Tehran economically but failed to spark internal uprising, as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) quashed protest calls, arrested dissidents, and reportedly consolidated power through a "soft coup" blocking civilian appointments while securing Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei's inner circle. On April 15, the US Senate rejected Democratic efforts to halt military actions, sustaining external threats without evident fractures in Iran's security apparatus. Ceasefire confusion persists, but historical patterns of repression and loyalty among IRGC ranks suggest significant barriers to any coup before the deadline.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$392,502 거래량
$392,502 거래량
2026.06.30
예
$392,502 거래량
$392,502 거래량
2026.06.30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices "No" at 88.5% for an Iran coup attempt by June 30, reflecting the regime's institutional resilience amid the ongoing 2026 US-Iran war, with no verified military defections or takeover bids in the past 30 days. Recent US airstrikes on Kharg Island and naval blockade considerations have pressured Tehran economically but failed to spark internal uprising, as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) quashed protest calls, arrested dissidents, and reportedly consolidated power through a "soft coup" blocking civilian appointments while securing Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei's inner circle. On April 15, the US Senate rejected Democratic efforts to halt military actions, sustaining external threats without evident fractures in Iran's security apparatus. Ceasefire confusion persists, but historical patterns of repression and loyalty among IRGC ranks suggest significant barriers to any coup before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
거래량
$392,502종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices "No" at 88.5% for an Iran coup attempt by June 30, reflecting the regime's institutional resilience amid the ongoing 2026 US-Iran war, with no verified military defections or takeover bids in the past 30 days. Recent US airstrikes on Kharg Island and naval blockade considerations have pressured Tehran economically but failed to spark internal uprising, as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) quashed protest calls, arrested dissidents, and reportedly consolidated power through a "soft coup" blocking civilian appointments while securing Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei's inner circle. On April 15, the US Senate rejected Democratic efforts to halt military actions, sustaining external threats without evident fractures in Iran's security apparatus. Ceasefire confusion persists, but historical patterns of repression and loyalty among IRGC ranks suggest significant barriers to any coup before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$392,502종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 88.5% for an Iran coup attempt by June 30, reflecting the regime's institutional resilience amid the ongoing 2026 US-Iran war, with no verified military defections or takeover bids in the past 30 days. Recent US airstrikes on Kharg Island and naval blockade considerations have pressured Tehran economically but failed to spark internal uprising, as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) quashed protest calls, arrested dissidents, and reportedly consolidated power through a "soft coup" blocking civilian appointments while securing Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei's inner circle. On April 15, the US Senate rejected Democratic efforts to halt military actions, sustaining external threats without evident fractures in Iran's security apparatus. Ceasefire confusion persists, but historical patterns of repression and loyalty among IRGC ranks suggest significant barriers to any coup before the deadline.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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