A fragile de-escalation defines Israel-Iran dynamics following U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Iran starting February 28, 2026, which prompted Iranian missile salvos and proxy escalations via Hezbollah. A two-week U.S.-Iran ceasefire, announced around April 8 and expiring April 22, coincides with a 10-day Israel-Lebanon truce effective April 16, mediated amid Iran's Strait of Hormuz restrictions. President Trump signaled potential U.S.-Iran diplomatic meetings and a broader peace path, but Iran's parliament speaker urged caution, insisting on full compliance. Permanent bilateral peace remains distant absent resolutions on Iran's nuclear program, ballistic missiles, and proxy networks like Hezbollah, with traders monitoring ceasefire extensions and Oman-brokered talks for shifts.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
2026.05.31
April 22
8%
April 30
28%
6월 30일
45%
$1,019 거래량
April 22
$985 거래량
8%
April 30
$33 거래량
28%
6월 30일
$1 거래량
45%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.A fragile de-escalation defines Israel-Iran dynamics following U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Iran starting February 28, 2026, which prompted Iranian missile salvos and proxy escalations via Hezbollah. A two-week U.S.-Iran ceasefire, announced around April 8 and expiring April 22, coincides with a 10-day Israel-Lebanon truce effective April 16, mediated amid Iran's Strait of Hormuz restrictions. President Trump signaled potential U.S.-Iran diplomatic meetings and a broader peace path, but Iran's parliament speaker urged caution, insisting on full compliance. Permanent bilateral peace remains distant absent resolutions on Iran's nuclear program, ballistic missiles, and proxy networks like Hezbollah, with traders monitoring ceasefire extensions and Oman-brokered talks for shifts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
마켓 개설일: Apr 16, 2026, 7:49 PM ET
거래량
$1,019종료일
2026.05.31마켓 개설일
Apr 16, 2026, 7:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.A fragile de-escalation defines Israel-Iran dynamics following U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Iran starting February 28, 2026, which prompted Iranian missile salvos and proxy escalations via Hezbollah. A two-week U.S.-Iran ceasefire, announced around April 8 and expiring April 22, coincides with a 10-day Israel-Lebanon truce effective April 16, mediated amid Iran's Strait of Hormuz restrictions. President Trump signaled potential U.S.-Iran diplomatic meetings and a broader peace path, but Iran's parliament speaker urged caution, insisting on full compliance. Permanent bilateral peace remains distant absent resolutions on Iran's nuclear program, ballistic missiles, and proxy networks like Hezbollah, with traders monitoring ceasefire extensions and Oman-brokered talks for shifts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
거래량
$1,019종료일
2026.05.31마켓 개설일
Apr 16, 2026, 7:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A fragile de-escalation defines Israel-Iran dynamics following U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Iran starting February 28, 2026, which prompted Iranian missile salvos and proxy escalations via Hezbollah. A two-week U.S.-Iran ceasefire, announced around April 8 and expiring April 22, coincides with a 10-day Israel-Lebanon truce effective April 16, mediated amid Iran's Strait of Hormuz restrictions. President Trump signaled potential U.S.-Iran diplomatic meetings and a broader peace path, but Iran's parliament speaker urged caution, insisting on full compliance. Permanent bilateral peace remains distant absent resolutions on Iran's nuclear program, ballistic missiles, and proxy networks like Hezbollah, with traders monitoring ceasefire extensions and Oman-brokered talks for shifts.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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