Trader consensus assigns a 98.5% implied probability to no Iranian regime fall by April 30, driven by the security apparatus's proven resilience amid 2025-2026 protests over economic collapse and war costs. IRGC crackdowns—including January internet blackouts, executions like that of Amirhossein Hatami on April 1, and suppression of unrest—have quelled dissent without triggering military defections or unified opposition, echoing past waves like 2022. Ongoing 2026 Iran war strikes by US and Israel have weakened proxies but not core leadership under Supreme Leader Khamenei. Realistic shifters include sudden elite fractures, mass desertions, or battlefield escalations prompting internal revolt, though barriers like loyalist control make these unlikely in the two-week window.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$31,846,230 거래량
$31,846,230 거래량
2026.04.30
예
$31,846,230 거래량
$31,846,230 거래량
2026.04.30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus assigns a 98.5% implied probability to no Iranian regime fall by April 30, driven by the security apparatus's proven resilience amid 2025-2026 protests over economic collapse and war costs. IRGC crackdowns—including January internet blackouts, executions like that of Amirhossein Hatami on April 1, and suppression of unrest—have quelled dissent without triggering military defections or unified opposition, echoing past waves like 2022. Ongoing 2026 Iran war strikes by US and Israel have weakened proxies but not core leadership under Supreme Leader Khamenei. Realistic shifters include sudden elite fractures, mass desertions, or battlefield escalations prompting internal revolt, though barriers like loyalist control make these unlikely in the two-week window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Mar 5, 2026, 12:03 PM ET
거래량
$31,846,230종료일
2026.04.30마켓 개설일
Mar 5, 2026, 12:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus assigns a 98.5% implied probability to no Iranian regime fall by April 30, driven by the security apparatus's proven resilience amid 2025-2026 protests over economic collapse and war costs. IRGC crackdowns—including January internet blackouts, executions like that of Amirhossein Hatami on April 1, and suppression of unrest—have quelled dissent without triggering military defections or unified opposition, echoing past waves like 2022. Ongoing 2026 Iran war strikes by US and Israel have weakened proxies but not core leadership under Supreme Leader Khamenei. Realistic shifters include sudden elite fractures, mass desertions, or battlefield escalations prompting internal revolt, though barriers like loyalist control make these unlikely in the two-week window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$31,846,345종료일
2026.04.30마켓 개설일
Mar 5, 2026, 12:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus assigns a 98.5% implied probability to no Iranian regime fall by April 30, driven by the security apparatus's proven resilience amid 2025-2026 protests over economic collapse and war costs. IRGC crackdowns—including January internet blackouts, executions like that of Amirhossein Hatami on April 1, and suppression of unrest—have quelled dissent without triggering military defections or unified opposition, echoing past waves like 2022. Ongoing 2026 Iran war strikes by US and Israel have weakened proxies but not core leadership under Supreme Leader Khamenei. Realistic shifters include sudden elite fractures, mass desertions, or battlefield escalations prompting internal revolt, though barriers like loyalist control make these unlikely in the two-week window.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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