Recent two-week ceasefire between the US, Israel, and Iran, agreed April 8 and mediated by Pakistan, has cooled escalation in the 2026 Iran war, diminishing prospects for imminent regime change despite Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death in early March and his son Mojtaba's low-profile assumption of the role. Reza Pahlavi, exiled opposition leader and son of Iran's last shah, gained visibility via his March 28 CPAC speech urging the Trump administration to "stay the course" and positioning himself for transitional leadership, but President Trump has publicly questioned his ability to rally domestic support, with no State Department or White House recognition forthcoming. Traders' 86% "No" consensus reflects these diplomatic pauses, leadership continuity in Tehran, and barriers to prematurely endorsing an uncrowned exile amid uncertain post-war dynamics.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$531,180 거래량
$531,180 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$531,180 거래량
$531,180 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the "leader of Iran" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent two-week ceasefire between the US, Israel, and Iran, agreed April 8 and mediated by Pakistan, has cooled escalation in the 2026 Iran war, diminishing prospects for imminent regime change despite Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death in early March and his son Mojtaba's low-profile assumption of the role. Reza Pahlavi, exiled opposition leader and son of Iran's last shah, gained visibility via his March 28 CPAC speech urging the Trump administration to "stay the course" and positioning himself for transitional leadership, but President Trump has publicly questioned his ability to rally domestic support, with no State Department or White House recognition forthcoming. Traders' 86% "No" consensus reflects these diplomatic pauses, leadership continuity in Tehran, and barriers to prematurely endorsing an uncrowned exile amid uncertain post-war dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the "leader of Iran" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
마켓 개설일: Jan 5, 2026, 3:27 PM ET
거래량
$531,180종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Jan 5, 2026, 3:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the "leader of Iran" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent two-week ceasefire between the US, Israel, and Iran, agreed April 8 and mediated by Pakistan, has cooled escalation in the 2026 Iran war, diminishing prospects for imminent regime change despite Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death in early March and his son Mojtaba's low-profile assumption of the role. Reza Pahlavi, exiled opposition leader and son of Iran's last shah, gained visibility via his March 28 CPAC speech urging the Trump administration to "stay the course" and positioning himself for transitional leadership, but President Trump has publicly questioned his ability to rally domestic support, with no State Department or White House recognition forthcoming. Traders' 86% "No" consensus reflects these diplomatic pauses, leadership continuity in Tehran, and barriers to prematurely endorsing an uncrowned exile amid uncertain post-war dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the "leader of Iran" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
거래량
$531,180종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Jan 5, 2026, 3:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent two-week ceasefire between the US, Israel, and Iran, agreed April 8 and mediated by Pakistan, has cooled escalation in the 2026 Iran war, diminishing prospects for imminent regime change despite Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death in early March and his son Mojtaba's low-profile assumption of the role. Reza Pahlavi, exiled opposition leader and son of Iran's last shah, gained visibility via his March 28 CPAC speech urging the Trump administration to "stay the course" and positioning himself for transitional leadership, but President Trump has publicly questioned his ability to rally domestic support, with no State Department or White House recognition forthcoming. Traders' 86% "No" consensus reflects these diplomatic pauses, leadership continuity in Tehran, and barriers to prematurely endorsing an uncrowned exile amid uncertain post-war dynamics.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문