US and Israeli forces launched over 13,000 airstrikes on Iranian military targets starting February 28, assassinating top leaders including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, prompting Iranian missile retaliation across the region and Strait of Hormuz closure. A Pakistan-brokered two-week ceasefire took effect April 8, suspending US offensive operations with no confirmed drone, missile, or air strikes on Iranian soil since, per market criteria. Trader consensus reflects this pause amid US claims of a "generational defeat" for Iran, though a new US naval blockade of Iranian ports initiated April 13 has escalated tensions, with Trump warning of strikes on approaching warships. Failed Islamabad talks signal fragile de-escalation, while Senate war powers votes and potential new negotiations could influence resumption risks before ceasefire expiry.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$29,591,207 거래량
2026.04.30
4월 17일
100%
$29,591,207 거래량
4월 17일
$26,573,150 거래량
100%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli forces launched over 13,000 airstrikes on Iranian military targets starting February 28, assassinating top leaders including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, prompting Iranian missile retaliation across the region and Strait of Hormuz closure. A Pakistan-brokered two-week ceasefire took effect April 8, suspending US offensive operations with no confirmed drone, missile, or air strikes on Iranian soil since, per market criteria. Trader consensus reflects this pause amid US claims of a "generational defeat" for Iran, though a new US naval blockade of Iranian ports initiated April 13 has escalated tensions, with Trump warning of strikes on approaching warships. Failed Islamabad talks signal fragile de-escalation, while Senate war powers votes and potential new negotiations could influence resumption risks before ceasefire expiry.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Mar 27, 2026, 2:04 PM ET
거래량
$29,591,207종료일
2026.04.30마켓 개설일
Mar 27, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...결과 제안됨: 예
이의 제기됨
결과 제안됨: 예
이의 제기됨
최종 검토
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli forces launched over 13,000 airstrikes on Iranian military targets starting February 28, assassinating top leaders including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, prompting Iranian missile retaliation across the region and Strait of Hormuz closure. A Pakistan-brokered two-week ceasefire took effect April 8, suspending US offensive operations with no confirmed drone, missile, or air strikes on Iranian soil since, per market criteria. Trader consensus reflects this pause amid US claims of a "generational defeat" for Iran, though a new US naval blockade of Iranian ports initiated April 13 has escalated tensions, with Trump warning of strikes on approaching warships. Failed Islamabad talks signal fragile de-escalation, while Senate war powers votes and potential new negotiations could influence resumption risks before ceasefire expiry.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$29,591,207종료일
2026.04.30마켓 개설일
Mar 27, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...결과 제안됨: 예
이의 제기됨
결과 제안됨: 예
이의 제기됨
최종 검토
US and Israeli forces launched over 13,000 airstrikes on Iranian military targets starting February 28, assassinating top leaders including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, prompting Iranian missile retaliation across the region and Strait of Hormuz closure. A Pakistan-brokered two-week ceasefire took effect April 8, suspending US offensive operations with no confirmed drone, missile, or air strikes on Iranian soil since, per market criteria. Trader consensus reflects this pause amid US claims of a "generational defeat" for Iran, though a new US naval blockade of Iranian ports initiated April 13 has escalated tensions, with Trump warning of strikes on approaching warships. Failed Islamabad talks signal fragile de-escalation, while Senate war powers votes and potential new negotiations could influence resumption risks before ceasefire expiry.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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