Recent collapse of high-stakes US-Iran talks in Islamabad, Pakistan, after 21 hours of negotiations has solidified trader consensus against a nuclear deal by April 30, with "No" implying 61.2% probability. Core disputes center on uranium enrichment limits—US demanding a 20-year halt versus Iran's refusal to dismantle its program or exceed short-term pauses—alongside unresolved issues like Strait of Hormuz access and ballistic missiles. A fragile ceasefire holds amid US sanctions and military posture, but VP JD Vance confirmed Iran rejected key US red lines. Mediators eye a potential resumption, yet historical impasses and the tight two-week timeline underscore significant barriers to agreement.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$1,218,271 거래량
$1,218,271 거래량
2026.04.30
예
$1,218,271 거래량
$1,218,271 거래량
2026.04.30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent collapse of high-stakes US-Iran talks in Islamabad, Pakistan, after 21 hours of negotiations has solidified trader consensus against a nuclear deal by April 30, with "No" implying 61.2% probability. Core disputes center on uranium enrichment limits—US demanding a 20-year halt versus Iran's refusal to dismantle its program or exceed short-term pauses—alongside unresolved issues like Strait of Hormuz access and ballistic missiles. A fragile ceasefire holds amid US sanctions and military posture, but VP JD Vance confirmed Iran rejected key US red lines. Mediators eye a potential resumption, yet historical impasses and the tight two-week timeline underscore significant barriers to agreement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
마켓 개설일: Mar 9, 2026, 4:56 PM ET
거래량
$1,218,271종료일
2026.04.30마켓 개설일
Mar 9, 2026, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent collapse of high-stakes US-Iran talks in Islamabad, Pakistan, after 21 hours of negotiations has solidified trader consensus against a nuclear deal by April 30, with "No" implying 61.2% probability. Core disputes center on uranium enrichment limits—US demanding a 20-year halt versus Iran's refusal to dismantle its program or exceed short-term pauses—alongside unresolved issues like Strait of Hormuz access and ballistic missiles. A fragile ceasefire holds amid US sanctions and military posture, but VP JD Vance confirmed Iran rejected key US red lines. Mediators eye a potential resumption, yet historical impasses and the tight two-week timeline underscore significant barriers to agreement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
거래량
$1,218,271종료일
2026.04.30마켓 개설일
Mar 9, 2026, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent collapse of high-stakes US-Iran talks in Islamabad, Pakistan, after 21 hours of negotiations has solidified trader consensus against a nuclear deal by April 30, with "No" implying 61.2% probability. Core disputes center on uranium enrichment limits—US demanding a 20-year halt versus Iran's refusal to dismantle its program or exceed short-term pauses—alongside unresolved issues like Strait of Hormuz access and ballistic missiles. A fragile ceasefire holds amid US sanctions and military posture, but VP JD Vance confirmed Iran rejected key US red lines. Mediators eye a potential resumption, yet historical impasses and the tight two-week timeline underscore significant barriers to agreement.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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