Trader consensus reflects a 73% implied probability for "No" on any country expelling a U.S. ambassador by December 31, driven by the absence of recent diplomatic ruptures triggering such measures. No verifiable expulsions have occurred in 2026, despite bilateral frictions like U.S.-South Africa tensions, where the U.S. declared South African envoy Ebrahim Rasool persona non grata earlier this year for criticizing President Trump, prompting domestic calls in Pretoria for reciprocity but no action. The Trump administration's late-2025 recall of nearly 30 career ambassadors from African, Asian, and European posts reshuffled U.S. diplomacy without host-country retaliations. Stable relations amid ongoing foreign policy negotiations in hotspots like the Middle East and sub-Saharan Africa support traders' low expectations for escalation before year-end.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$13,031 거래량
$13,031 거래량
2026.12.31
$13,031 거래량
$13,031 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus reflects a 73% implied probability for "No" on any country expelling a U.S. ambassador by December 31, driven by the absence of recent diplomatic ruptures triggering such measures. No verifiable expulsions have occurred in 2026, despite bilateral frictions like U.S.-South Africa tensions, where the U.S. declared South African envoy Ebrahim Rasool persona non grata earlier this year for criticizing President Trump, prompting domestic calls in Pretoria for reciprocity but no action. The Trump administration's late-2025 recall of nearly 30 career ambassadors from African, Asian, and European posts reshuffled U.S. diplomacy without host-country retaliations. Stable relations amid ongoing foreign policy negotiations in hotspots like the Middle East and sub-Saharan Africa support traders' low expectations for escalation before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
마켓 개설일: Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ET
거래량
$13,031종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus reflects a 73% implied probability for "No" on any country expelling a U.S. ambassador by December 31, driven by the absence of recent diplomatic ruptures triggering such measures. No verifiable expulsions have occurred in 2026, despite bilateral frictions like U.S.-South Africa tensions, where the U.S. declared South African envoy Ebrahim Rasool persona non grata earlier this year for criticizing President Trump, prompting domestic calls in Pretoria for reciprocity but no action. The Trump administration's late-2025 recall of nearly 30 career ambassadors from African, Asian, and European posts reshuffled U.S. diplomacy without host-country retaliations. Stable relations amid ongoing foreign policy negotiations in hotspots like the Middle East and sub-Saharan Africa support traders' low expectations for escalation before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
거래량
$13,031종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects a 73% implied probability for "No" on any country expelling a U.S. ambassador by December 31, driven by the absence of recent diplomatic ruptures triggering such measures. No verifiable expulsions have occurred in 2026, despite bilateral frictions like U.S.-South Africa tensions, where the U.S. declared South African envoy Ebrahim Rasool persona non grata earlier this year for criticizing President Trump, prompting domestic calls in Pretoria for reciprocity but no action. The Trump administration's late-2025 recall of nearly 30 career ambassadors from African, Asian, and European posts reshuffled U.S. diplomacy without host-country retaliations. Stable relations amid ongoing foreign policy negotiations in hotspots like the Middle East and sub-Saharan Africa support traders' low expectations for escalation before year-end.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문