A fragile two-week ceasefire between Israel, the US, and Iran, effective since April 8 and brokered by Pakistan, has held without verified Israeli strikes on Iranian soil since April 6 attacks on petrochemical facilities, amid ongoing proxy clashes with Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iranian-backed militia drone launches at Gulf states. The truce faces strain from the US naval blockade of Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz imposed April 13, enforcing navigation restrictions and costing Iran millions daily in lost oil exports, following failed Islamabad talks on April 11-12 over nuclear curbs and reparations. Trader consensus reflects uncertainty ahead of the April 21 deadline, with Israel-Lebanon direct negotiations underway and potential second-round US-Iran diplomacy via mediators like Pakistan.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$1,644,464 거래량
2026.04.21
4월 14일
<1%
4월 21일
9%
$1,644,464 거래량
4월 14일
$1,171,703 거래량
<1%
4월 21일
$487,128 거래량
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.A fragile two-week ceasefire between Israel, the US, and Iran, effective since April 8 and brokered by Pakistan, has held without verified Israeli strikes on Iranian soil since April 6 attacks on petrochemical facilities, amid ongoing proxy clashes with Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iranian-backed militia drone launches at Gulf states. The truce faces strain from the US naval blockade of Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz imposed April 13, enforcing navigation restrictions and costing Iran millions daily in lost oil exports, following failed Islamabad talks on April 11-12 over nuclear curbs and reparations. Trader consensus reflects uncertainty ahead of the April 21 deadline, with Israel-Lebanon direct negotiations underway and potential second-round US-Iran diplomacy via mediators like Pakistan.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
마켓 개설일: Apr 8, 2026, 11:35 AM ET
거래량
$1,644,464종료일
2026.04.21마켓 개설일
Apr 8, 2026, 11:35 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.A fragile two-week ceasefire between Israel, the US, and Iran, effective since April 8 and brokered by Pakistan, has held without verified Israeli strikes on Iranian soil since April 6 attacks on petrochemical facilities, amid ongoing proxy clashes with Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iranian-backed militia drone launches at Gulf states. The truce faces strain from the US naval blockade of Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz imposed April 13, enforcing navigation restrictions and costing Iran millions daily in lost oil exports, following failed Islamabad talks on April 11-12 over nuclear curbs and reparations. Trader consensus reflects uncertainty ahead of the April 21 deadline, with Israel-Lebanon direct negotiations underway and potential second-round US-Iran diplomacy via mediators like Pakistan.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
거래량
$1,644,464종료일
2026.04.21마켓 개설일
Apr 8, 2026, 11:35 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A fragile two-week ceasefire between Israel, the US, and Iran, effective since April 8 and brokered by Pakistan, has held without verified Israeli strikes on Iranian soil since April 6 attacks on petrochemical facilities, amid ongoing proxy clashes with Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iranian-backed militia drone launches at Gulf states. The truce faces strain from the US naval blockade of Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz imposed April 13, enforcing navigation restrictions and costing Iran millions daily in lost oil exports, following failed Islamabad talks on April 11-12 over nuclear curbs and reparations. Trader consensus reflects uncertainty ahead of the April 21 deadline, with Israel-Lebanon direct negotiations underway and potential second-round US-Iran diplomacy via mediators like Pakistan.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문