The ongoing U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran, launched with airstrikes on February 28, 2026, targeting nuclear sites, leadership, and energy infrastructure, remains the dominant factor shaping trader sentiment, now in its seventh week with daily strikes and Iranian retaliatory missile barrages on Gulf states and U.S. bases. No other country has conducted verifiable offensive military action against Iran, despite condemnations from Saudi Arabia, UAE, and others hit by Tehran's attacks; regional allies appear reluctant amid risks of broader escalation, proxy involvement, and economic fallout like oil disruptions. Recent U.S. naval blockade initiation in the Strait of Hormuz on April 13 and Pakistan-mediated U.S.-Iran talks signal potential de-escalation paths, lowering near-term odds for additional actors joining before April 30.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$1,255,390 거래량
2026.04.15
4월 15일
1%
4월 30일
6%
$1,255,390 거래량
4월 15일
$858,201 거래량
1%
4월 30일
$397,188 거래량
6%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country other than Israel or the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “military action” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.The ongoing U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran, launched with airstrikes on February 28, 2026, targeting nuclear sites, leadership, and energy infrastructure, remains the dominant factor shaping trader sentiment, now in its seventh week with daily strikes and Iranian retaliatory missile barrages on Gulf states and U.S. bases. No other country has conducted verifiable offensive military action against Iran, despite condemnations from Saudi Arabia, UAE, and others hit by Tehran's attacks; regional allies appear reluctant amid risks of broader escalation, proxy involvement, and economic fallout like oil disruptions. Recent U.S. naval blockade initiation in the Strait of Hormuz on April 13 and Pakistan-mediated U.S.-Iran talks signal potential de-escalation paths, lowering near-term odds for additional actors joining before April 30.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country other than Israel or the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “military action” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “military action” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
마켓 개설일: Mar 19, 2026, 2:09 PM ET
거래량
$1,255,390종료일
2026.04.30마켓 개설일
Mar 19, 2026, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country other than Israel or the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “military action” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.The ongoing U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran, launched with airstrikes on February 28, 2026, targeting nuclear sites, leadership, and energy infrastructure, remains the dominant factor shaping trader sentiment, now in its seventh week with daily strikes and Iranian retaliatory missile barrages on Gulf states and U.S. bases. No other country has conducted verifiable offensive military action against Iran, despite condemnations from Saudi Arabia, UAE, and others hit by Tehran's attacks; regional allies appear reluctant amid risks of broader escalation, proxy involvement, and economic fallout like oil disruptions. Recent U.S. naval blockade initiation in the Strait of Hormuz on April 13 and Pakistan-mediated U.S.-Iran talks signal potential de-escalation paths, lowering near-term odds for additional actors joining before April 30.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country other than Israel or the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “military action” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “military action” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
거래량
$1,255,390종료일
2026.04.30마켓 개설일
Mar 19, 2026, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The ongoing U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran, launched with airstrikes on February 28, 2026, targeting nuclear sites, leadership, and energy infrastructure, remains the dominant factor shaping trader sentiment, now in its seventh week with daily strikes and Iranian retaliatory missile barrages on Gulf states and U.S. bases. No other country has conducted verifiable offensive military action against Iran, despite condemnations from Saudi Arabia, UAE, and others hit by Tehran's attacks; regional allies appear reluctant amid risks of broader escalation, proxy involvement, and economic fallout like oil disruptions. Recent U.S. naval blockade initiation in the Strait of Hormuz on April 13 and Pakistan-mediated U.S.-Iran talks signal potential de-escalation paths, lowering near-term odds for additional actors joining before April 30.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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