A fragile ceasefire took effect on April 8, 2026, halting 40 days of intense US-Israeli airstrikes that severely degraded Iran's medium-range missile capabilities, air defenses, and nuclear-related sites, following Iran's earlier retaliatory drone and missile barrages against Israel and US regional bases. Iranian missile fire targeting Israel has since plummeted, with no verified strikes in the past week amid ongoing diplomatic talks in Islamabad and Israeli-Lebanon negotiations overshadowed by Hezbollah threats and Strait of Hormuz tensions. Traders weigh de-escalation signals against persistent escalation risks from proxy actions or ceasefire violations before the April 30 deadline, with Iran's weakened posture reducing near-term military action likelihood absent major provocations.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$3,998,458 거래량
2026.04.30
이라크
100%
바레인
33%
카타르
22%
오만
7%
요르단
6%
키프로스
4%
레바논
4%
시리아
4%
아제르바이잔
4%
터키
3%
아프가니스탄
3%
폴란드
2%
파키스탄
2%
예멘
2%
우크라이나
1%
아르메니아
1%
영국
1%
이탈리아
1%
조지아
1%
인도
1%
독일
1%
프랑스
1%
스페인
1%
헝가리
1%
$3,998,458 거래량
이라크
$1,979,145 거래량
100%
바레인
$86,668 거래량
33%
카타르
$79,339 거래량
22%
오만
$62,717 거래량
7%
요르단
$11,819 거래량
6%
키프로스
$18,139 거래량
4%
레바논
$42,073 거래량
4%
시리아
$12,367 거래량
4%
아제르바이잔
$37,978 거래량
4%
터키
$18,725 거래량
3%
아프가니스탄
$1,724 거래량
3%
폴란드
$35,838 거래량
2%
파키스탄
$13,586 거래량
2%
예멘
$8,378 거래량
2%
우크라이나
$14,538 거래량
1%
아르메니아
$3,308 거래량
1%
영국
$25,110 거래량
1%
이탈리아
$1,353 거래량
1%
조지아
$7,269 거래량
1%
인도
$19,286 거래량
1%
독일
$18,004 거래량
1%
프랑스
$31,222 거래량
1%
스페인
$7,031 거래량
1%
헝가리
$14,578 거래량
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.A fragile ceasefire took effect on April 8, 2026, halting 40 days of intense US-Israeli airstrikes that severely degraded Iran's medium-range missile capabilities, air defenses, and nuclear-related sites, following Iran's earlier retaliatory drone and missile barrages against Israel and US regional bases. Iranian missile fire targeting Israel has since plummeted, with no verified strikes in the past week amid ongoing diplomatic talks in Islamabad and Israeli-Lebanon negotiations overshadowed by Hezbollah threats and Strait of Hormuz tensions. Traders weigh de-escalation signals against persistent escalation risks from proxy actions or ceasefire violations before the April 30 deadline, with Iran's weakened posture reducing near-term military action likelihood absent major provocations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
마켓 개설일: Mar 24, 2026, 1:27 PM ET
거래량
$3,998,458종료일
2026.04.30마켓 개설일
Mar 24, 2026, 1:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.A fragile ceasefire took effect on April 8, 2026, halting 40 days of intense US-Israeli airstrikes that severely degraded Iran's medium-range missile capabilities, air defenses, and nuclear-related sites, following Iran's earlier retaliatory drone and missile barrages against Israel and US regional bases. Iranian missile fire targeting Israel has since plummeted, with no verified strikes in the past week amid ongoing diplomatic talks in Islamabad and Israeli-Lebanon negotiations overshadowed by Hezbollah threats and Strait of Hormuz tensions. Traders weigh de-escalation signals against persistent escalation risks from proxy actions or ceasefire violations before the April 30 deadline, with Iran's weakened posture reducing near-term military action likelihood absent major provocations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
거래량
$3,998,458종료일
2026.04.30마켓 개설일
Mar 24, 2026, 1:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A fragile ceasefire took effect on April 8, 2026, halting 40 days of intense US-Israeli airstrikes that severely degraded Iran's medium-range missile capabilities, air defenses, and nuclear-related sites, following Iran's earlier retaliatory drone and missile barrages against Israel and US regional bases. Iranian missile fire targeting Israel has since plummeted, with no verified strikes in the past week amid ongoing diplomatic talks in Islamabad and Israeli-Lebanon negotiations overshadowed by Hezbollah threats and Strait of Hormuz tensions. Traders weigh de-escalation signals against persistent escalation risks from proxy actions or ceasefire violations before the April 30 deadline, with Iran's weakened posture reducing near-term military action likelihood absent major provocations.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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