Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 95.5% probability against the Iranian regime falling by May 31, reflecting the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' (IRGC) sustained repressive capacity and control despite severe war-related strains. U.S. and Israeli strikes killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in recent weeks, sparking a contested succession with a provisional council and factional rifts, while 2025–2026 protests—fueled by economic freefall, hyperinflation, and currency collapse—have persisted nationwide but remain disorganized and contained without mass security force defections. U.S. intelligence assessments from early March confirmed no imminent collapse risk, echoed by Israeli officials noting tight street control. A U.S. blockade implemented April 15 adds pressure, alongside ceasefire extension talks, but short-term fragmentation or uprising appears unlikely; scenarios like IRGC command breakdowns, widespread defections, or total Hormuz closure could shift odds rapidly.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$1,391,361 거래량
$1,391,361 거래량
2026.05.31
예
$1,391,361 거래량
$1,391,361 거래량
2026.05.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 95.5% probability against the Iranian regime falling by May 31, reflecting the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' (IRGC) sustained repressive capacity and control despite severe war-related strains. U.S. and Israeli strikes killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in recent weeks, sparking a contested succession with a provisional council and factional rifts, while 2025–2026 protests—fueled by economic freefall, hyperinflation, and currency collapse—have persisted nationwide but remain disorganized and contained without mass security force defections. U.S. intelligence assessments from early March confirmed no imminent collapse risk, echoed by Israeli officials noting tight street control. A U.S. blockade implemented April 15 adds pressure, alongside ceasefire extension talks, but short-term fragmentation or uprising appears unlikely; scenarios like IRGC command breakdowns, widespread defections, or total Hormuz closure could shift odds rapidly.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ET
거래량
$1,391,361종료일
2026.05.31마켓 개설일
Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 95.5% probability against the Iranian regime falling by May 31, reflecting the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' (IRGC) sustained repressive capacity and control despite severe war-related strains. U.S. and Israeli strikes killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in recent weeks, sparking a contested succession with a provisional council and factional rifts, while 2025–2026 protests—fueled by economic freefall, hyperinflation, and currency collapse—have persisted nationwide but remain disorganized and contained without mass security force defections. U.S. intelligence assessments from early March confirmed no imminent collapse risk, echoed by Israeli officials noting tight street control. A U.S. blockade implemented April 15 adds pressure, alongside ceasefire extension talks, but short-term fragmentation or uprising appears unlikely; scenarios like IRGC command breakdowns, widespread defections, or total Hormuz closure could shift odds rapidly.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$1,391,361종료일
2026.05.31마켓 개설일
Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 95.5% probability against the Iranian regime falling by May 31, reflecting the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' (IRGC) sustained repressive capacity and control despite severe war-related strains. U.S. and Israeli strikes killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in recent weeks, sparking a contested succession with a provisional council and factional rifts, while 2025–2026 protests—fueled by economic freefall, hyperinflation, and currency collapse—have persisted nationwide but remain disorganized and contained without mass security force defections. U.S. intelligence assessments from early March confirmed no imminent collapse risk, echoed by Israeli officials noting tight street control. A U.S. blockade implemented April 15 adds pressure, alongside ceasefire extension talks, but short-term fragmentation or uprising appears unlikely; scenarios like IRGC command breakdowns, widespread defections, or total Hormuz closure could shift odds rapidly.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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