Ongoing US-Iran hostilities, including a US naval blockade of Iranian ports enforced since early April 2026, have solidified trader consensus against embassy reopening, with "No" at 86.5%. Failed direct negotiations in Pakistan last weekend, despite proposals for suspending Iran's nuclear activities, prompted the blockade after a brief ceasefire, amid prior Israeli strikes and assassinations escalating the 2025-2026 conflict. No official announcements signal diplomatic normalization required for embassy restoration—absent since the 1979 hostage crisis—while Tehran repurposes the old US compound as a military site. Potential second-round talks offer slim de-escalation prospects, but entrenched sanctions and military pressures maintain high barriers to reconciliation by year-end.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$50,833 거래량
$50,833 거래량
2026.12.31
$50,833 거래량
$50,833 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Ongoing US-Iran hostilities, including a US naval blockade of Iranian ports enforced since early April 2026, have solidified trader consensus against embassy reopening, with "No" at 86.5%. Failed direct negotiations in Pakistan last weekend, despite proposals for suspending Iran's nuclear activities, prompted the blockade after a brief ceasefire, amid prior Israeli strikes and assassinations escalating the 2025-2026 conflict. No official announcements signal diplomatic normalization required for embassy restoration—absent since the 1979 hostage crisis—while Tehran repurposes the old US compound as a military site. Potential second-round talks offer slim de-escalation prospects, but entrenched sanctions and military pressures maintain high barriers to reconciliation by year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
마켓 개설일: Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ET
거래량
$50,833종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Ongoing US-Iran hostilities, including a US naval blockade of Iranian ports enforced since early April 2026, have solidified trader consensus against embassy reopening, with "No" at 86.5%. Failed direct negotiations in Pakistan last weekend, despite proposals for suspending Iran's nuclear activities, prompted the blockade after a brief ceasefire, amid prior Israeli strikes and assassinations escalating the 2025-2026 conflict. No official announcements signal diplomatic normalization required for embassy restoration—absent since the 1979 hostage crisis—while Tehran repurposes the old US compound as a military site. Potential second-round talks offer slim de-escalation prospects, but entrenched sanctions and military pressures maintain high barriers to reconciliation by year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
거래량
$50,833종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US-Iran hostilities, including a US naval blockade of Iranian ports enforced since early April 2026, have solidified trader consensus against embassy reopening, with "No" at 86.5%. Failed direct negotiations in Pakistan last weekend, despite proposals for suspending Iran's nuclear activities, prompted the blockade after a brief ceasefire, amid prior Israeli strikes and assassinations escalating the 2025-2026 conflict. No official announcements signal diplomatic normalization required for embassy restoration—absent since the 1979 hostage crisis—while Tehran repurposes the old US compound as a military site. Potential second-round talks offer slim de-escalation prospects, but entrenched sanctions and military pressures maintain high barriers to reconciliation by year-end.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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