Trader consensus prices an 78.5% implied probability against a new sovereign state joining the Abraham Accords by June 30, driven by the absence of concrete diplomatic breakthroughs despite U.S. President Trump's public urging of Saudi Arabia to normalize relations with Israel amid the March 2026 escalation in the Iran conflict. Kazakhstan's formal accession in November 2025 marked the latest expansion, but Riyadh continues linking any deal to progress on Palestinian statehood, a longstanding precondition unmet amid regional instability. Other prospects like Pakistan have explicitly ruled out participation, while unrecognized entities such as Somaliland express conditional interest without advancing formal talks. With roughly 10 weeks remaining, no scheduled summits or negotiations signal imminent resolution, reinforcing trader skepticism on short-term expansion.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$21,461 거래량
$21,461 거래량
2026.06.30
예
$21,461 거래량
$21,461 거래량
2026.06.30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices an 78.5% implied probability against a new sovereign state joining the Abraham Accords by June 30, driven by the absence of concrete diplomatic breakthroughs despite U.S. President Trump's public urging of Saudi Arabia to normalize relations with Israel amid the March 2026 escalation in the Iran conflict. Kazakhstan's formal accession in November 2025 marked the latest expansion, but Riyadh continues linking any deal to progress on Palestinian statehood, a longstanding precondition unmet amid regional instability. Other prospects like Pakistan have explicitly ruled out participation, while unrecognized entities such as Somaliland express conditional interest without advancing formal talks. With roughly 10 weeks remaining, no scheduled summits or negotiations signal imminent resolution, reinforcing trader skepticism on short-term expansion.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
마켓 개설일: Apr 1, 2026, 2:04 PM ET
거래량
$21,461종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Apr 1, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices an 78.5% implied probability against a new sovereign state joining the Abraham Accords by June 30, driven by the absence of concrete diplomatic breakthroughs despite U.S. President Trump's public urging of Saudi Arabia to normalize relations with Israel amid the March 2026 escalation in the Iran conflict. Kazakhstan's formal accession in November 2025 marked the latest expansion, but Riyadh continues linking any deal to progress on Palestinian statehood, a longstanding precondition unmet amid regional instability. Other prospects like Pakistan have explicitly ruled out participation, while unrecognized entities such as Somaliland express conditional interest without advancing formal talks. With roughly 10 weeks remaining, no scheduled summits or negotiations signal imminent resolution, reinforcing trader skepticism on short-term expansion.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
거래량
$21,461종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Apr 1, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices an 78.5% implied probability against a new sovereign state joining the Abraham Accords by June 30, driven by the absence of concrete diplomatic breakthroughs despite U.S. President Trump's public urging of Saudi Arabia to normalize relations with Israel amid the March 2026 escalation in the Iran conflict. Kazakhstan's formal accession in November 2025 marked the latest expansion, but Riyadh continues linking any deal to progress on Palestinian statehood, a longstanding precondition unmet amid regional instability. Other prospects like Pakistan have explicitly ruled out participation, while unrecognized entities such as Somaliland express conditional interest without advancing formal talks. With roughly 10 weeks remaining, no scheduled summits or negotiations signal imminent resolution, reinforcing trader skepticism on short-term expansion.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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