Trader consensus reflects an 84% implied probability of no military clash between Israel and Turkey before 2027, driven by recent escalatory rhetoric from Turkish President Erdogan and Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan—warning of potential intervention akin to past actions in Libya and Karabakh, amid accusations over Gaza, Syria, and Israel's search for a new adversary—offset by de-escalation signals like Turkey debunking invasion threats as unfounded. Over the past week, mutual accusations have intensified without military mobilizations, airstrikes, or direct encounters, constrained by Turkey's NATO membership, Israel's nuclear deterrence and advanced air defenses, logistical challenges over 800 miles, and shared economic interests. No verified troop movements or proxy escalations in Syria have materialized, prioritizing diplomacy amid broader regional tensions with Iran, with barriers to direct conflict outweighing verbal posturing.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$166,083 거래량
$166,083 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$166,083 거래량
$166,083 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of Israel and Turkey by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus reflects an 84% implied probability of no military clash between Israel and Turkey before 2027, driven by recent escalatory rhetoric from Turkish President Erdogan and Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan—warning of potential intervention akin to past actions in Libya and Karabakh, amid accusations over Gaza, Syria, and Israel's search for a new adversary—offset by de-escalation signals like Turkey debunking invasion threats as unfounded. Over the past week, mutual accusations have intensified without military mobilizations, airstrikes, or direct encounters, constrained by Turkey's NATO membership, Israel's nuclear deterrence and advanced air defenses, logistical challenges over 800 miles, and shared economic interests. No verified troop movements or proxy escalations in Syria have materialized, prioritizing diplomacy amid broader regional tensions with Iran, with barriers to direct conflict outweighing verbal posturing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of Israel and Turkey by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Nov 5, 2025, 2:04 PM ET
거래량
$166,083종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 5, 2025, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of Israel and Turkey by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus reflects an 84% implied probability of no military clash between Israel and Turkey before 2027, driven by recent escalatory rhetoric from Turkish President Erdogan and Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan—warning of potential intervention akin to past actions in Libya and Karabakh, amid accusations over Gaza, Syria, and Israel's search for a new adversary—offset by de-escalation signals like Turkey debunking invasion threats as unfounded. Over the past week, mutual accusations have intensified without military mobilizations, airstrikes, or direct encounters, constrained by Turkey's NATO membership, Israel's nuclear deterrence and advanced air defenses, logistical challenges over 800 miles, and shared economic interests. No verified troop movements or proxy escalations in Syria have materialized, prioritizing diplomacy amid broader regional tensions with Iran, with barriers to direct conflict outweighing verbal posturing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of Israel and Turkey by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$166,083종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 5, 2025, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects an 84% implied probability of no military clash between Israel and Turkey before 2027, driven by recent escalatory rhetoric from Turkish President Erdogan and Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan—warning of potential intervention akin to past actions in Libya and Karabakh, amid accusations over Gaza, Syria, and Israel's search for a new adversary—offset by de-escalation signals like Turkey debunking invasion threats as unfounded. Over the past week, mutual accusations have intensified without military mobilizations, airstrikes, or direct encounters, constrained by Turkey's NATO membership, Israel's nuclear deterrence and advanced air defenses, logistical challenges over 800 miles, and shared economic interests. No verified troop movements or proxy escalations in Syria have materialized, prioritizing diplomacy amid broader regional tensions with Iran, with barriers to direct conflict outweighing verbal posturing.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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