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세계·Trump Presidency

미국은 공식적으로 이란에 전쟁을 선포할 것인가...?

Market icon
세계·Trump Presidency

미국은 공식적으로 이란에 전쟁을 선포할 것인가...?

12월 31

12월 31

$6,004,081 거래량

2026.04.30
Polymarket

$6,004,081 거래량

Polymarket

4월 30일

$1,069,520 거래량

1%

12월 31일

$383,403 거래량

8%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law. The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.Amid escalated US military actions against Iran—including airstrikes launched February 28 alongside Israel, a naval blockade of Iranian ports, and threats to warships—Congress has not issued a formal declaration of war, the constitutional threshold for official entry. On April 15, Senate Republicans blocked a Democratic resolution invoking the War Powers Resolution to end operations, extending President Trump's unilateral authority. A fragile two-week ceasefire from April 7 holds tenuously amid mediation in Islamabad and Trump's claims of nearing strategic objectives, expiring April 21. Traders assess low formal war odds given the May 1 War Powers deadline for congressional authorization, post-WWII precedent against declarations, and de-escalation signals.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.

The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$6,004,081
종료일
2026.12.31
마켓 개설일
Mar 24, 2026, 2:56 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law. The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law. The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.Amid escalated US military actions against Iran—including airstrikes launched February 28 alongside Israel, a naval blockade of Iranian ports, and threats to warships—Congress has not issued a formal declaration of war, the constitutional threshold for official entry. On April 15, Senate Republicans blocked a Democratic resolution invoking the War Powers Resolution to end operations, extending President Trump's unilateral authority. A fragile two-week ceasefire from April 7 holds tenuously amid mediation in Islamabad and Trump's claims of nearing strategic objectives, expiring April 21. Traders assess low formal war odds given the May 1 War Powers deadline for congressional authorization, post-WWII precedent against declarations, and de-escalation signals.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.

The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$6,004,081
종료일
2026.12.31
마켓 개설일
Mar 24, 2026, 2:56 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law. The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.

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자주 묻는 질문

"미국은 공식적으로 이란에 전쟁을 선포할 것인가...?"은 3개의 가능한 결과가 있는 Polymarket의 예측 마켓으로, 트레이더들이 어떤 결과가 발생할지에 따라 주식을 매수 및 매도합니다. 현재 선두 결과는 8%의 "12월 31일"이며, 이어서 1%의 "4월 30일"입니다. 가격은 실시간 크라우드소싱 확률을 반영합니다. 예를 들어 8¢에 거래되는 주식은 마켓이 해당 결과에 8%의 확률을 부여함을 의미합니다. 이 확률은 트레이더들이 새로운 진전과 정보에 반응함에 따라 지속적으로 변화합니다. 정확한 결과의 주식은 마켓 정산 시 각 $1에 교환 가능합니다.

오늘 현재 "미국은 공식적으로 이란에 전쟁을 선포할 것인가...?"은 총 $6 million의 거래량을 생성했습니다 마켓이 Jan 12, 2026에 시작된 이후. 이 수준의 거래 활동은 Polymarket 커뮤니티의 강한 참여를 반영하며 현재 확률이 깊은 참가자 풀에 의해 정보에 기반하도록 보장합니다. 이 페이지에서 실시간 가격 변동을 추적하고 모든 결과에 직접 거래할 수 있습니다.

"미국은 공식적으로 이란에 전쟁을 선포할 것인가...?"에서 거래하려면 이 페이지에 나열된 3개의 가용 결과를 탐색하세요. 각 결과에는 마켓의 내재 확률을 나타내는 현재 가격이 표시됩니다. 포지션을 잡으려면 가장 가능성이 높다고 생각하는 결과를 선택하고, 찬성이면 "Yes", 반대이면 "No"를 선택하고, 금액을 입력하고 "거래"를 클릭하세요. 마켓이 정산될 때 선택한 결과가 맞으면 "Yes" 주식은 각 $1을 지급합니다. 틀리면 $0을 지급합니다. 수익을 확정하거나 손실을 줄이고 싶다면 정산 전 언제든지 주식을 매도할 수 있습니다.

이것은 완전히 열린 마켓입니다. "미국은 공식적으로 이란에 전쟁을 선포할 것인가...?"의 현재 선두는 8%에 불과한 "12월 31일"이며, "4월 30일"이 1%로 바짝 뒤쫓고 있습니다. 강한 과반을 차지하는 결과가 없어 트레이더들은 이를 매우 불확실하게 보고 있으며, 이는 독특한 거래 기회를 제공할 수 있습니다. 이 확률은 실시간으로 업데이트되므로 이 페이지를 북마크하여 확률이 어떻게 변화하는지 지켜보세요.

"미국은 공식적으로 이란에 전쟁을 선포할 것인가...?"의 정산 규칙은 각 결과가 승자로 선언되기 위해 정확히 무엇이 일어나야 하는지를 정의합니다 — 결과를 결정하는 데 사용되는 공식 데이터 소스를 포함합니다. 이 페이지의 댓글 위 "규칙" 섹션에서 완전한 정산 기준을 검토할 수 있습니다. 거래 전 규칙을 주의 깊게 읽는 것을 권장합니다. 이 마켓이 어떻게 정산되는지를 관리하는 정확한 조건, 예외 사항, 출처를 명시하고 있습니다.