**Trader consensus favors "No" at 78.5% implied probability that Israeli forces will cross the Litani River by June 30, driven by recent IDF emphasis on securing a buffer zone south of the river amid Hezbollah resistance and diplomatic pressures.** In the past week, Israel's military chief ordered the area south of the Litani turned into a Hezbollah "kill zone," while strikes targeted bridges and positions along the river without ground crossings northwards; a Hezbollah ambush on April 6 halted an IDF push near the river. Security cabinet discussions of a one-week ceasefire under U.S. pressure, alongside completed forward deployments south of the Litani as announced April 7, signal de-escalation focus over expansion. Earlier March advances reached the river but stalled, with no major breakthroughs reported, lowering odds of a crossing before summer amid ongoing airstrikes and negotiations.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$352,535 거래량
$352,535 거래량
2026.06.30
예
$352,535 거래량
$352,535 거래량
2026.06.30
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israeli military personnel cross the Litani River in Lebanon by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Israeli military personnel” refers to members of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) or any other official military units acting under the authority of the State of Israel. Intelligence or other non-military personnel will not count.
A “crossing” will be considered to have occurred if Israeli military personnel are confirmed to have physically traversed the Litani River in Lebanon at any point, including but not limited to by bridge, boat, swimming, wading, or temporary or permanent crossing.
Aerial insertion, parachute drops, helicopter landings, or other forms of aerial infiltration that do not involve Israeli military personnel physically traversing the Litani River will not qualify.
Mere presence on one bank of the Litani River, without confirmation that Israeli military personnel traversed the river to the opposite bank, will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Trader consensus favors "No" at 78.5% implied probability that Israeli forces will cross the Litani River by June 30, driven by recent IDF emphasis on securing a buffer zone south of the river amid Hezbollah resistance and diplomatic pressures.** In the past week, Israel's military chief ordered the area south of the Litani turned into a Hezbollah "kill zone," while strikes targeted bridges and positions along the river without ground crossings northwards; a Hezbollah ambush on April 6 halted an IDF push near the river. Security cabinet discussions of a one-week ceasefire under U.S. pressure, alongside completed forward deployments south of the Litani as announced April 7, signal de-escalation focus over expansion. Earlier March advances reached the river but stalled, with no major breakthroughs reported, lowering odds of a crossing before summer amid ongoing airstrikes and negotiations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israeli military personnel cross the Litani River in Lebanon by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Israeli military personnel” refers to members of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) or any other official military units acting under the authority of the State of Israel. Intelligence or other non-military personnel will not count.
A “crossing” will be considered to have occurred if Israeli military personnel are confirmed to have physically traversed the Litani River in Lebanon at any point, including but not limited to by bridge, boat, swimming, wading, or temporary or permanent crossing.
Aerial insertion, parachute drops, helicopter landings, or other forms of aerial infiltration that do not involve Israeli military personnel physically traversing the Litani River will not qualify.
Mere presence on one bank of the Litani River, without confirmation that Israeli military personnel traversed the river to the opposite bank, will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
“Israeli military personnel” refers to members of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) or any other official military units acting under the authority of the State of Israel. Intelligence or other non-military personnel will not count.
A “crossing” will be considered to have occurred if Israeli military personnel are confirmed to have physically traversed the Litani River in Lebanon at any point, including but not limited to by bridge, boat, swimming, wading, or temporary or permanent crossing.
Aerial insertion, parachute drops, helicopter landings, or other forms of aerial infiltration that do not involve Israeli military personnel physically traversing the Litani River will not qualify.
Mere presence on one bank of the Litani River, without confirmation that Israeli military personnel traversed the river to the opposite bank, will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Mar 17, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
거래량
$352,535종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Mar 17, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israeli military personnel cross the Litani River in Lebanon by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Israeli military personnel” refers to members of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) or any other official military units acting under the authority of the State of Israel. Intelligence or other non-military personnel will not count.
A “crossing” will be considered to have occurred if Israeli military personnel are confirmed to have physically traversed the Litani River in Lebanon at any point, including but not limited to by bridge, boat, swimming, wading, or temporary or permanent crossing.
Aerial insertion, parachute drops, helicopter landings, or other forms of aerial infiltration that do not involve Israeli military personnel physically traversing the Litani River will not qualify.
Mere presence on one bank of the Litani River, without confirmation that Israeli military personnel traversed the river to the opposite bank, will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Trader consensus favors "No" at 78.5% implied probability that Israeli forces will cross the Litani River by June 30, driven by recent IDF emphasis on securing a buffer zone south of the river amid Hezbollah resistance and diplomatic pressures.** In the past week, Israel's military chief ordered the area south of the Litani turned into a Hezbollah "kill zone," while strikes targeted bridges and positions along the river without ground crossings northwards; a Hezbollah ambush on April 6 halted an IDF push near the river. Security cabinet discussions of a one-week ceasefire under U.S. pressure, alongside completed forward deployments south of the Litani as announced April 7, signal de-escalation focus over expansion. Earlier March advances reached the river but stalled, with no major breakthroughs reported, lowering odds of a crossing before summer amid ongoing airstrikes and negotiations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israeli military personnel cross the Litani River in Lebanon by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Israeli military personnel” refers to members of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) or any other official military units acting under the authority of the State of Israel. Intelligence or other non-military personnel will not count.
A “crossing” will be considered to have occurred if Israeli military personnel are confirmed to have physically traversed the Litani River in Lebanon at any point, including but not limited to by bridge, boat, swimming, wading, or temporary or permanent crossing.
Aerial insertion, parachute drops, helicopter landings, or other forms of aerial infiltration that do not involve Israeli military personnel physically traversing the Litani River will not qualify.
Mere presence on one bank of the Litani River, without confirmation that Israeli military personnel traversed the river to the opposite bank, will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
“Israeli military personnel” refers to members of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) or any other official military units acting under the authority of the State of Israel. Intelligence or other non-military personnel will not count.
A “crossing” will be considered to have occurred if Israeli military personnel are confirmed to have physically traversed the Litani River in Lebanon at any point, including but not limited to by bridge, boat, swimming, wading, or temporary or permanent crossing.
Aerial insertion, parachute drops, helicopter landings, or other forms of aerial infiltration that do not involve Israeli military personnel physically traversing the Litani River will not qualify.
Mere presence on one bank of the Litani River, without confirmation that Israeli military personnel traversed the river to the opposite bank, will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$352,535종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Mar 17, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Trader consensus favors "No" at 78.5% implied probability that Israeli forces will cross the Litani River by June 30, driven by recent IDF emphasis on securing a buffer zone south of the river amid Hezbollah resistance and diplomatic pressures.** In the past week, Israel's military chief ordered the area south of the Litani turned into a Hezbollah "kill zone," while strikes targeted bridges and positions along the river without ground crossings northwards; a Hezbollah ambush on April 6 halted an IDF push near the river. Security cabinet discussions of a one-week ceasefire under U.S. pressure, alongside completed forward deployments south of the Litani as announced April 7, signal de-escalation focus over expansion. Earlier March advances reached the river but stalled, with no major breakthroughs reported, lowering odds of a crossing before summer amid ongoing airstrikes and negotiations.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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