Ongoing US-Iran negotiations aimed at halting the 2026 conflict and addressing nuclear issues represent the primary driver behind traders assigning an 81.5% probability to no US invasion before 2027. As of early June 2026, both sides continue exchanging proposals following February airstrikes and earlier 2025 operations, with Iran reviewing US offers amid signals that diplomacy remains active. Congressional passage of an Iran War Powers Resolution in early June further constrains unilateral escalation, while US actions have centered on targeted strikes, naval measures, and blockades rather than ground operations. These developments, alongside mutual readiness to use force if talks fail, sustain market pricing that full territorial invasion remains unlikely within the timeframe despite regional tensions.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$34,714,601 거래량
$34,714,601 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$34,714,601 거래량
$34,714,601 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Ongoing US-Iran negotiations aimed at halting the 2026 conflict and addressing nuclear issues represent the primary driver behind traders assigning an 81.5% probability to no US invasion before 2027. As of early June 2026, both sides continue exchanging proposals following February airstrikes and earlier 2025 operations, with Iran reviewing US offers amid signals that diplomacy remains active. Congressional passage of an Iran War Powers Resolution in early June further constrains unilateral escalation, while US actions have centered on targeted strikes, naval measures, and blockades rather than ground operations. These developments, alongside mutual readiness to use force if talks fail, sustain market pricing that full territorial invasion remains unlikely within the timeframe despite regional tensions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
마켓 개설일: Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ET
거래량
$34,714,601종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Ongoing US-Iran negotiations aimed at halting the 2026 conflict and addressing nuclear issues represent the primary driver behind traders assigning an 81.5% probability to no US invasion before 2027. As of early June 2026, both sides continue exchanging proposals following February airstrikes and earlier 2025 operations, with Iran reviewing US offers amid signals that diplomacy remains active. Congressional passage of an Iran War Powers Resolution in early June further constrains unilateral escalation, while US actions have centered on targeted strikes, naval measures, and blockades rather than ground operations. These developments, alongside mutual readiness to use force if talks fail, sustain market pricing that full territorial invasion remains unlikely within the timeframe despite regional tensions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
거래량
$34,714,622종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US-Iran negotiations aimed at halting the 2026 conflict and addressing nuclear issues represent the primary driver behind traders assigning an 81.5% probability to no US invasion before 2027. As of early June 2026, both sides continue exchanging proposals following February airstrikes and earlier 2025 operations, with Iran reviewing US offers amid signals that diplomacy remains active. Congressional passage of an Iran War Powers Resolution in early June further constrains unilateral escalation, while US actions have centered on targeted strikes, naval measures, and blockades rather than ground operations. These developments, alongside mutual readiness to use force if talks fail, sustain market pricing that full territorial invasion remains unlikely within the timeframe despite regional tensions.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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