US trader consensus favors no full-scale ground invasion of Iran before 2027 at 66.5% implied probability, driven by the Trump administration's shift to economic blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian ports, effective April 14, rather than deploying ground troops amid a fragile two-week ceasefire brokered by Pakistan on April 8. Recent failed negotiations in Islamabad on April 12 exposed sticking points over nuclear suspension and sanctions relief, yet President Trump signaled the conflict's end is near in addresses this week, with Pakistan pushing fresh talks before ceasefire expiry. Senate Republicans rejected war powers limits April 15, but airstrikes since late February have avoided boots-on-the-ground escalation, prioritizing naval and air pressure despite Iranian warnings of renewed hostilities.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$10,524,669 거래량
$10,524,669 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$10,524,669 거래량
$10,524,669 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.US trader consensus favors no full-scale ground invasion of Iran before 2027 at 66.5% implied probability, driven by the Trump administration's shift to economic blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian ports, effective April 14, rather than deploying ground troops amid a fragile two-week ceasefire brokered by Pakistan on April 8. Recent failed negotiations in Islamabad on April 12 exposed sticking points over nuclear suspension and sanctions relief, yet President Trump signaled the conflict's end is near in addresses this week, with Pakistan pushing fresh talks before ceasefire expiry. Senate Republicans rejected war powers limits April 15, but airstrikes since late February have avoided boots-on-the-ground escalation, prioritizing naval and air pressure despite Iranian warnings of renewed hostilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
마켓 개설일: Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ET
거래량
$10,524,669종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.US trader consensus favors no full-scale ground invasion of Iran before 2027 at 66.5% implied probability, driven by the Trump administration's shift to economic blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian ports, effective April 14, rather than deploying ground troops amid a fragile two-week ceasefire brokered by Pakistan on April 8. Recent failed negotiations in Islamabad on April 12 exposed sticking points over nuclear suspension and sanctions relief, yet President Trump signaled the conflict's end is near in addresses this week, with Pakistan pushing fresh talks before ceasefire expiry. Senate Republicans rejected war powers limits April 15, but airstrikes since late February have avoided boots-on-the-ground escalation, prioritizing naval and air pressure despite Iranian warnings of renewed hostilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
거래량
$10,524,714종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US trader consensus favors no full-scale ground invasion of Iran before 2027 at 66.5% implied probability, driven by the Trump administration's shift to economic blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian ports, effective April 14, rather than deploying ground troops amid a fragile two-week ceasefire brokered by Pakistan on April 8. Recent failed negotiations in Islamabad on April 12 exposed sticking points over nuclear suspension and sanctions relief, yet President Trump signaled the conflict's end is near in addresses this week, with Pakistan pushing fresh talks before ceasefire expiry. Senate Republicans rejected war powers limits April 15, but airstrikes since late February have avoided boots-on-the-ground escalation, prioritizing naval and air pressure despite Iranian warnings of renewed hostilities.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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