Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations and a fragile ceasefire since April 2026 have reduced near-term risks of a full ground invasion, with traders pricing the “No” outcome at 81.5% through the end of 2026. Air and naval strikes under Operation Epic Fury targeted nuclear and missile sites earlier this year, but U.S. officials have emphasized limited objectives, sanctions pressure, and diplomacy over large-scale troop deployment. Recent Strait of Hormuz incidents in early June prompted targeted U.S. responses and Iranian retaliation without triggering escalation to ground operations. High costs, regional instability risks, and focus on verifiable nuclear limits in ongoing talks reinforce the current trader consensus against an invasion before 2027.