US naval blockade enforcement on Iranian ports since April 13, amid stalled ceasefire talks, has prompted Iranian threats to target shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, and Red Sea, yet superior US intercepts and strikes—destroying numerous IRGC fast boats and vessels—have curtailed Tehran's strike capacity, with missile fire down 90% per recent assessments. Traders' consensus favoring 2–3 successful hits by April 30 reflects March's ~20 commercial vessel attacks (mostly damages via drones/mines) but a sharp April drop-off, as degraded naval assets limit escalation. Houthi proxies may enable 2–3 Red Sea strikes, though deterrence and ongoing US operations cap higher tallies absent major breakthroughs.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트2~3 54%
4~5 18%
8~9 8%
6~7 7%
$60,967 거래량
$60,967 거래량
2026.04.30
2~3
54%
4~5
18%
6~7
7%
8~9
8%
10+
4%
2~3 54%
4~5 18%
8~9 8%
6~7 7%
$60,967 거래량
$60,967 거래량
2026.04.30
2~3
$8,552 거래량
54%
4~5
$14,175 거래량
18%
6~7
$3,596 거래량
7%
8~9
$6,654 거래량
8%
10+
$3,259 거래량
4%
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.US naval blockade enforcement on Iranian ports since April 13, amid stalled ceasefire talks, has prompted Iranian threats to target shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, and Red Sea, yet superior US intercepts and strikes—destroying numerous IRGC fast boats and vessels—have curtailed Tehran's strike capacity, with missile fire down 90% per recent assessments. Traders' consensus favoring 2–3 successful hits by April 30 reflects March's ~20 commercial vessel attacks (mostly damages via drones/mines) but a sharp April drop-off, as degraded naval assets limit escalation. Houthi proxies may enable 2–3 Red Sea strikes, though deterrence and ongoing US operations cap higher tallies absent major breakthroughs.
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ET
거래량
$60,967종료일
2026.04.30마켓 개설일
Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.US naval blockade enforcement on Iranian ports since April 13, amid stalled ceasefire talks, has prompted Iranian threats to target shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, and Red Sea, yet superior US intercepts and strikes—destroying numerous IRGC fast boats and vessels—have curtailed Tehran's strike capacity, with missile fire down 90% per recent assessments. Traders' consensus favoring 2–3 successful hits by April 30 reflects March's ~20 commercial vessel attacks (mostly damages via drones/mines) but a sharp April drop-off, as degraded naval assets limit escalation. Houthi proxies may enable 2–3 Red Sea strikes, though deterrence and ongoing US operations cap higher tallies absent major breakthroughs.
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$60,967종료일
2026.04.30마켓 개설일
Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...US naval blockade enforcement on Iranian ports since April 13, amid stalled ceasefire talks, has prompted Iranian threats to target shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, and Red Sea, yet superior US intercepts and strikes—destroying numerous IRGC fast boats and vessels—have curtailed Tehran's strike capacity, with missile fire down 90% per recent assessments. Traders' consensus favoring 2–3 successful hits by April 30 reflects March's ~20 commercial vessel attacks (mostly damages via drones/mines) but a sharp April drop-off, as degraded naval assets limit escalation. Houthi proxies may enable 2–3 Red Sea strikes, though deterrence and ongoing US operations cap higher tallies absent major breakthroughs.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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