Amid escalating US-Iran tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for global oil shipments, US naval forces have imposed a blockade on Iranian oil tankers since early April 2026, intercepting vessels attempting outbound transits and ordering turnarounds, as confirmed by CENTCOM. Iran has issued threats against US warships transiting the strait, while US officials emphasize no military escorts for non-Iranian commercial ships, instead signaling safe passage to encourage merchant traffic, which has increased amid deterrence efforts. A temporary ceasefire expires next week, potentially prompting diplomatic talks or further military action like escorts if threats intensify; historical precedents from the 1980s Tanker War highlight risks of tit-for-tat escalation influencing trader consensus on near-term probabilities.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$3,849,487 거래량
2026.03.31
4월 30일
22%
$3,849,487 거래량
4월 30일
$751,281 거래량
22%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States military or federal government officially announces that it will escort, is escorting, or has escorted, any commercial ship through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Escort refers to United States military or government personnel accompanying or actively providing protective overwatch for a specific commercial vessel or convoy during its transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Personnel do not need to be aboard the commercial vessel to qualify. Escort may occur from a separate naval vessel or from aerial assets assigned to accompany or protect the transit.
A qualifying announcement must be definitive. Suggestions, unconfirmed reports, or other non-definitive statements will not count.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that United States military or government personnel have escorted at least one commercial vessel on a journey through the Strait of Hormuz will also be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government and military of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States military or federal government officially announces that it will escort, is escorting, or has escorted, any commercial ship through the Strait of Hormuz by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Escort refers to United States military or government personnel accompanying or actively providing protective overwatch for a specific commercial vessel or convoy during its transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Personnel do not need to be aboard the commercial vessel to qualify. Escort may occur from a separate naval vessel or from aerial assets assigned to accompany or protect the transit.
A qualifying announcement must be definitive. Suggestions, unconfirmed reports, or other non-definitive statements will not count.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that United States military or government personnel have escorted at least one commercial vessel on a journey through the Strait of Hormuz will also be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government and military of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States military or federal government officially announces that it will escort, is escorting, or has escorted, any commercial ship through the Strait of Hormuz by April 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Escort refers to United States military or government personnel accompanying or actively providing protective overwatch for a specific commercial vessel or convoy during its transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Personnel do not need to be aboard the commercial vessel to qualify. Escort may occur from a separate naval vessel or from aerial assets assigned to accompany or protect the transit.
A qualifying announcement must be definitive. Suggestions, unconfirmed reports, or other non-definitive statements will not count.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that United States military or government personnel have escorted at least one commercial vessel on a journey through the Strait of Hormuz will also be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government and military of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Amid escalating US-Iran tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for global oil shipments, US naval forces have imposed a blockade on Iranian oil tankers since early April 2026, intercepting vessels attempting outbound transits and ordering turnarounds, as confirmed by CENTCOM. Iran has issued threats against US warships transiting the strait, while US officials emphasize no military escorts for non-Iranian commercial ships, instead signaling safe passage to encourage merchant traffic, which has increased amid deterrence efforts. A temporary ceasefire expires next week, potentially prompting diplomatic talks or further military action like escorts if threats intensify; historical precedents from the 1980s Tanker War highlight risks of tit-for-tat escalation influencing trader consensus on near-term probabilities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States military or federal government officially announces that it will escort, is escorting, or has escorted, any commercial ship through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Escort refers to United States military or government personnel accompanying or actively providing protective overwatch for a specific commercial vessel or convoy during its transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Personnel do not need to be aboard the commercial vessel to qualify. Escort may occur from a separate naval vessel or from aerial assets assigned to accompany or protect the transit.
A qualifying announcement must be definitive. Suggestions, unconfirmed reports, or other non-definitive statements will not count.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that United States military or government personnel have escorted at least one commercial vessel on a journey through the Strait of Hormuz will also be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government and military of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Escort refers to United States military or government personnel accompanying or actively providing protective overwatch for a specific commercial vessel or convoy during its transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Personnel do not need to be aboard the commercial vessel to qualify. Escort may occur from a separate naval vessel or from aerial assets assigned to accompany or protect the transit.
A qualifying announcement must be definitive. Suggestions, unconfirmed reports, or other non-definitive statements will not count.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that United States military or government personnel have escorted at least one commercial vessel on a journey through the Strait of Hormuz will also be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government and military of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
마켓 개설일: Mar 19, 2026, 2:33 PM ET
거래량
$3,849,487종료일
2026.03.31마켓 개설일
Mar 19, 2026, 2:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States military or federal government officially announces that it will escort, is escorting, or has escorted, any commercial ship through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Escort refers to United States military or government personnel accompanying or actively providing protective overwatch for a specific commercial vessel or convoy during its transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Personnel do not need to be aboard the commercial vessel to qualify. Escort may occur from a separate naval vessel or from aerial assets assigned to accompany or protect the transit.
A qualifying announcement must be definitive. Suggestions, unconfirmed reports, or other non-definitive statements will not count.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that United States military or government personnel have escorted at least one commercial vessel on a journey through the Strait of Hormuz will also be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government and military of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States military or federal government officially announces that it will escort, is escorting, or has escorted, any commercial ship through the Strait of Hormuz by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Escort refers to United States military or government personnel accompanying or actively providing protective overwatch for a specific commercial vessel or convoy during its transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Personnel do not need to be aboard the commercial vessel to qualify. Escort may occur from a separate naval vessel or from aerial assets assigned to accompany or protect the transit.
A qualifying announcement must be definitive. Suggestions, unconfirmed reports, or other non-definitive statements will not count.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that United States military or government personnel have escorted at least one commercial vessel on a journey through the Strait of Hormuz will also be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government and military of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States military or federal government officially announces that it will escort, is escorting, or has escorted, any commercial ship through the Strait of Hormuz by April 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Escort refers to United States military or government personnel accompanying or actively providing protective overwatch for a specific commercial vessel or convoy during its transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Personnel do not need to be aboard the commercial vessel to qualify. Escort may occur from a separate naval vessel or from aerial assets assigned to accompany or protect the transit.
A qualifying announcement must be definitive. Suggestions, unconfirmed reports, or other non-definitive statements will not count.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that United States military or government personnel have escorted at least one commercial vessel on a journey through the Strait of Hormuz will also be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government and military of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Amid escalating US-Iran tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for global oil shipments, US naval forces have imposed a blockade on Iranian oil tankers since early April 2026, intercepting vessels attempting outbound transits and ordering turnarounds, as confirmed by CENTCOM. Iran has issued threats against US warships transiting the strait, while US officials emphasize no military escorts for non-Iranian commercial ships, instead signaling safe passage to encourage merchant traffic, which has increased amid deterrence efforts. A temporary ceasefire expires next week, potentially prompting diplomatic talks or further military action like escorts if threats intensify; historical precedents from the 1980s Tanker War highlight risks of tit-for-tat escalation influencing trader consensus on near-term probabilities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States military or federal government officially announces that it will escort, is escorting, or has escorted, any commercial ship through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Escort refers to United States military or government personnel accompanying or actively providing protective overwatch for a specific commercial vessel or convoy during its transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Personnel do not need to be aboard the commercial vessel to qualify. Escort may occur from a separate naval vessel or from aerial assets assigned to accompany or protect the transit.
A qualifying announcement must be definitive. Suggestions, unconfirmed reports, or other non-definitive statements will not count.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that United States military or government personnel have escorted at least one commercial vessel on a journey through the Strait of Hormuz will also be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government and military of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Escort refers to United States military or government personnel accompanying or actively providing protective overwatch for a specific commercial vessel or convoy during its transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Personnel do not need to be aboard the commercial vessel to qualify. Escort may occur from a separate naval vessel or from aerial assets assigned to accompany or protect the transit.
A qualifying announcement must be definitive. Suggestions, unconfirmed reports, or other non-definitive statements will not count.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that United States military or government personnel have escorted at least one commercial vessel on a journey through the Strait of Hormuz will also be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government and military of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
거래량
$3,849,487종료일
2026.03.31마켓 개설일
Mar 19, 2026, 2:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid escalating US-Iran tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for global oil shipments, US naval forces have imposed a blockade on Iranian oil tankers since early April 2026, intercepting vessels attempting outbound transits and ordering turnarounds, as confirmed by CENTCOM. Iran has issued threats against US warships transiting the strait, while US officials emphasize no military escorts for non-Iranian commercial ships, instead signaling safe passage to encourage merchant traffic, which has increased amid deterrence efforts. A temporary ceasefire expires next week, potentially prompting diplomatic talks or further military action like escorts if threats intensify; historical precedents from the 1980s Tanker War highlight risks of tit-for-tat escalation influencing trader consensus on near-term probabilities.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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