Trader consensus prices a 90% implied probability against Citrini Analyst #3 returning to the Middle East before April 30, 2026, following his early-month field trip to the Strait of Hormuz amid heightened tensions. Citrini Research's April 5 report confirmed the analyst's entry via UAE's Fujairah oil terminal into Oman's Musandam province, where he boarded a speedboat near Iranian waters, encountered Shahed drones and Revolutionary Guard patrols, faced Omani Coast Guard detention, and debriefed safely back in New York. With no subsequent official announcements, updates, or escalation signals prompting a follow-up visit in the past 10 days, traders see significant barriers to another high-risk excursion before resolution, though late-breaking Hormuz developments could shift odds.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.04.30
신규
신규
2026.04.30
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Citrini Research confirms that Citrini Analyst #3 has physically entered the Middle East by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Entering the Middle East is defined as entrance into the terrestrial or maritime territory of any of the following countries/territories: Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Yemen, Oman, Bahrain, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Syria, Lebanon, Israel, Jordan, West Bank, Gaza Strip, Iraq, Turkey (Türkiye), Iran, Egypt.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Citrini Research.
Trader consensus prices a 90% implied probability against Citrini Analyst #3 returning to the Middle East before April 30, 2026, following his early-month field trip to the Strait of Hormuz amid heightened tensions. Citrini Research's April 5 report confirmed the analyst's entry via UAE's Fujairah oil terminal into Oman's Musandam province, where he boarded a speedboat near Iranian waters, encountered Shahed drones and Revolutionary Guard patrols, faced Omani Coast Guard detention, and debriefed safely back in New York. With no subsequent official announcements, updates, or escalation signals prompting a follow-up visit in the past 10 days, traders see significant barriers to another high-risk excursion before resolution, though late-breaking Hormuz developments could shift odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Citrini Research confirms that Citrini Analyst #3 has physically entered the Middle East by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Entering the Middle East is defined as entrance into the terrestrial or maritime territory of any of the following countries/territories: Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Yemen, Oman, Bahrain, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Syria, Lebanon, Israel, Jordan, West Bank, Gaza Strip, Iraq, Turkey (Türkiye), Iran, Egypt.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Citrini Research.
Entering the Middle East is defined as entrance into the terrestrial or maritime territory of any of the following countries/territories: Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Yemen, Oman, Bahrain, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Syria, Lebanon, Israel, Jordan, West Bank, Gaza Strip, Iraq, Turkey (Türkiye), Iran, Egypt.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Citrini Research.
마켓 개설일: Apr 8, 2026, 6:17 PM ET
거래량
$1,771종료일
2026.04.30마켓 개설일
Apr 8, 2026, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Citrini Research confirms that Citrini Analyst #3 has physically entered the Middle East by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Entering the Middle East is defined as entrance into the terrestrial or maritime territory of any of the following countries/territories: Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Yemen, Oman, Bahrain, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Syria, Lebanon, Israel, Jordan, West Bank, Gaza Strip, Iraq, Turkey (Türkiye), Iran, Egypt.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Citrini Research.
Trader consensus prices a 90% implied probability against Citrini Analyst #3 returning to the Middle East before April 30, 2026, following his early-month field trip to the Strait of Hormuz amid heightened tensions. Citrini Research's April 5 report confirmed the analyst's entry via UAE's Fujairah oil terminal into Oman's Musandam province, where he boarded a speedboat near Iranian waters, encountered Shahed drones and Revolutionary Guard patrols, faced Omani Coast Guard detention, and debriefed safely back in New York. With no subsequent official announcements, updates, or escalation signals prompting a follow-up visit in the past 10 days, traders see significant barriers to another high-risk excursion before resolution, though late-breaking Hormuz developments could shift odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Citrini Research confirms that Citrini Analyst #3 has physically entered the Middle East by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Entering the Middle East is defined as entrance into the terrestrial or maritime territory of any of the following countries/territories: Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Yemen, Oman, Bahrain, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Syria, Lebanon, Israel, Jordan, West Bank, Gaza Strip, Iraq, Turkey (Türkiye), Iran, Egypt.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Citrini Research.
Entering the Middle East is defined as entrance into the terrestrial or maritime territory of any of the following countries/territories: Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Yemen, Oman, Bahrain, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Syria, Lebanon, Israel, Jordan, West Bank, Gaza Strip, Iraq, Turkey (Türkiye), Iran, Egypt.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Citrini Research.
거래량
$1,771종료일
2026.04.30마켓 개설일
Apr 8, 2026, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a 90% implied probability against Citrini Analyst #3 returning to the Middle East before April 30, 2026, following his early-month field trip to the Strait of Hormuz amid heightened tensions. Citrini Research's April 5 report confirmed the analyst's entry via UAE's Fujairah oil terminal into Oman's Musandam province, where he boarded a speedboat near Iranian waters, encountered Shahed drones and Revolutionary Guard patrols, faced Omani Coast Guard detention, and debriefed safely back in New York. With no subsequent official announcements, updates, or escalation signals prompting a follow-up visit in the past 10 days, traders see significant barriers to another high-risk excursion before resolution, though late-breaking Hormuz developments could shift odds.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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