Trader consensus prices "No" at 95.9% implied probability that France, the UK, or Germany will strike Iran by June 30, reflecting their steadfast defensive posture amid the ongoing US-Israel-Iran conflict. Despite Iranian drone and missile strikes on European assets—including UK bases in Cyprus and Diego Garcia in March—leaders from the E3 nations issued joint statements condemning the attacks while pledging only "proportionate defensive measures" to protect Gulf allies and Strait of Hormuz shipping, alongside calls for diplomacy and de-escalation. No offensive actions have materialized, with deployments limited to naval patrols and base permissions for US defensive operations. This restraint aligns with historical European preferences for sanctions over military escalation. Scenarios that could shift odds include a direct homeland attack, NATO Article 5 invocation, or Iranian regime collapse prompting intervention.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$735,900 거래량
$735,900 거래량
2026.06.30
예
$735,900 거래량
$735,900 거래량
2026.06.30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices "No" at 95.9% implied probability that France, the UK, or Germany will strike Iran by June 30, reflecting their steadfast defensive posture amid the ongoing US-Israel-Iran conflict. Despite Iranian drone and missile strikes on European assets—including UK bases in Cyprus and Diego Garcia in March—leaders from the E3 nations issued joint statements condemning the attacks while pledging only "proportionate defensive measures" to protect Gulf allies and Strait of Hormuz shipping, alongside calls for diplomacy and de-escalation. No offensive actions have materialized, with deployments limited to naval patrols and base permissions for US defensive operations. This restraint aligns with historical European preferences for sanctions over military escalation. Scenarios that could shift odds include a direct homeland attack, NATO Article 5 invocation, or Iranian regime collapse prompting intervention.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Feb 16, 2026, 11:42 AM ET
거래량
$735,900종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Feb 16, 2026, 11:42 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices "No" at 95.9% implied probability that France, the UK, or Germany will strike Iran by June 30, reflecting their steadfast defensive posture amid the ongoing US-Israel-Iran conflict. Despite Iranian drone and missile strikes on European assets—including UK bases in Cyprus and Diego Garcia in March—leaders from the E3 nations issued joint statements condemning the attacks while pledging only "proportionate defensive measures" to protect Gulf allies and Strait of Hormuz shipping, alongside calls for diplomacy and de-escalation. No offensive actions have materialized, with deployments limited to naval patrols and base permissions for US defensive operations. This restraint aligns with historical European preferences for sanctions over military escalation. Scenarios that could shift odds include a direct homeland attack, NATO Article 5 invocation, or Iranian regime collapse prompting intervention.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$735,900종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Feb 16, 2026, 11:42 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 95.9% implied probability that France, the UK, or Germany will strike Iran by June 30, reflecting their steadfast defensive posture amid the ongoing US-Israel-Iran conflict. Despite Iranian drone and missile strikes on European assets—including UK bases in Cyprus and Diego Garcia in March—leaders from the E3 nations issued joint statements condemning the attacks while pledging only "proportionate defensive measures" to protect Gulf allies and Strait of Hormuz shipping, alongside calls for diplomacy and de-escalation. No offensive actions have materialized, with deployments limited to naval patrols and base permissions for US defensive operations. This restraint aligns with historical European preferences for sanctions over military escalation. Scenarios that could shift odds include a direct homeland attack, NATO Article 5 invocation, or Iranian regime collapse prompting intervention.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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