Trader consensus prices a Ukraine-Russia peace deal by June 30 at just 7.5%, driven by stalled negotiations and the collapse of a 32-hour Orthodox Easter ceasefire announced April 9, with both sides accusing each other of hundreds of violations by April 12. Ukrainian President Zelenskiy stated April 14 that U.S. peace negotiators lack time amid the Iran conflict, echoing Russian claims that talks are paused due to those escalations, despite fleeting optimism six days ago from Zelenskiy's top aide on potential progress. Persistent frontline fighting—including Russian pushes in Luhansk and Ukrainian territorial gains—highlights fundamental divides over territorial concessions, leaving slim room for a signed agreement absent major diplomatic breakthroughs like renewed Geneva-format summits or de-escalation signals before summer.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$94,169 거래량
$94,169 거래량
2026.06.30
예
$94,169 거래량
$94,169 거래량
2026.06.30
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices a Ukraine-Russia peace deal by June 30 at just 7.5%, driven by stalled negotiations and the collapse of a 32-hour Orthodox Easter ceasefire announced April 9, with both sides accusing each other of hundreds of violations by April 12. Ukrainian President Zelenskiy stated April 14 that U.S. peace negotiators lack time amid the Iran conflict, echoing Russian claims that talks are paused due to those escalations, despite fleeting optimism six days ago from Zelenskiy's top aide on potential progress. Persistent frontline fighting—including Russian pushes in Luhansk and Ukrainian territorial gains—highlights fundamental divides over territorial concessions, leaving slim room for a signed agreement absent major diplomatic breakthroughs like renewed Geneva-format summits or de-escalation signals before summer.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ET
거래량
$94,169종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices a Ukraine-Russia peace deal by June 30 at just 7.5%, driven by stalled negotiations and the collapse of a 32-hour Orthodox Easter ceasefire announced April 9, with both sides accusing each other of hundreds of violations by April 12. Ukrainian President Zelenskiy stated April 14 that U.S. peace negotiators lack time amid the Iran conflict, echoing Russian claims that talks are paused due to those escalations, despite fleeting optimism six days ago from Zelenskiy's top aide on potential progress. Persistent frontline fighting—including Russian pushes in Luhansk and Ukrainian territorial gains—highlights fundamental divides over territorial concessions, leaving slim room for a signed agreement absent major diplomatic breakthroughs like renewed Geneva-format summits or de-escalation signals before summer.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$94,169종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a Ukraine-Russia peace deal by June 30 at just 7.5%, driven by stalled negotiations and the collapse of a 32-hour Orthodox Easter ceasefire announced April 9, with both sides accusing each other of hundreds of violations by April 12. Ukrainian President Zelenskiy stated April 14 that U.S. peace negotiators lack time amid the Iran conflict, echoing Russian claims that talks are paused due to those escalations, despite fleeting optimism six days ago from Zelenskiy's top aide on potential progress. Persistent frontline fighting—including Russian pushes in Luhansk and Ukrainian territorial gains—highlights fundamental divides over territorial concessions, leaving slim room for a signed agreement absent major diplomatic breakthroughs like renewed Geneva-format summits or de-escalation signals before summer.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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