Saudi Arabia's insistence on establishing a Palestinian state based on 1967 borders and ending the Gaza war remains a firm precondition for normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel, as reiterated in recent official positions and analyses. February 2026 assessments from Israeli and international observers highlight Riyadh's growing perception of risks over benefits, driven by hostile domestic public opinion and strategic realignments amid ongoing regional tensions, including Iran-related conflicts. President Trump's March 27 statement conditioning normalization on an Iran war conclusion further underscores unresolved geopolitical hurdles. With no direct talks or breakthroughs in the past 30 days, traders' 78.5% consensus on "No" before 2027 reflects the stalled Abraham Accords expansion and entrenched barriers to progress.