Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2026, driven by a March 18 U.S. intelligence assessment concluding Beijing lacks plans for a 2027 assault or fixed timeline, preferring unification without force amid high economic and military costs. Recent PLA activities—warships and warplanes in the Taiwan Strait as of April 10—represent routine gray-zone coercion rather than invasion buildup, coinciding with Taiwan opposition leader Cheng's April 9-10 Beijing summit with Xi Jinping, where he reiterated opposition to independence but emphasized peace. U.S. deterrence, Taiwan's asymmetric defenses, and logistical barriers for amphibious operations sustain this positioning, though sudden escalations like major crises or diplomatic breakdowns could shift odds before resolution.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$5,672,971 거래량
$5,672,971 거래량
2026.06.30
예
$5,672,971 거래량
$5,672,971 거래량
2026.06.30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2026, driven by a March 18 U.S. intelligence assessment concluding Beijing lacks plans for a 2027 assault or fixed timeline, preferring unification without force amid high economic and military costs. Recent PLA activities—warships and warplanes in the Taiwan Strait as of April 10—represent routine gray-zone coercion rather than invasion buildup, coinciding with Taiwan opposition leader Cheng's April 9-10 Beijing summit with Xi Jinping, where he reiterated opposition to independence but emphasized peace. U.S. deterrence, Taiwan's asymmetric defenses, and logistical barriers for amphibious operations sustain this positioning, though sudden escalations like major crises or diplomatic breakdowns could shift odds before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
마켓 개설일: Dec 17, 2025, 3:24 PM ET
거래량
$5,672,971종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Dec 17, 2025, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2026, driven by a March 18 U.S. intelligence assessment concluding Beijing lacks plans for a 2027 assault or fixed timeline, preferring unification without force amid high economic and military costs. Recent PLA activities—warships and warplanes in the Taiwan Strait as of April 10—represent routine gray-zone coercion rather than invasion buildup, coinciding with Taiwan opposition leader Cheng's April 9-10 Beijing summit with Xi Jinping, where he reiterated opposition to independence but emphasized peace. U.S. deterrence, Taiwan's asymmetric defenses, and logistical barriers for amphibious operations sustain this positioning, though sudden escalations like major crises or diplomatic breakdowns could shift odds before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
거래량
$5,673,870종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Dec 17, 2025, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2026, driven by a March 18 U.S. intelligence assessment concluding Beijing lacks plans for a 2027 assault or fixed timeline, preferring unification without force amid high economic and military costs. Recent PLA activities—warships and warplanes in the Taiwan Strait as of April 10—represent routine gray-zone coercion rather than invasion buildup, coinciding with Taiwan opposition leader Cheng's April 9-10 Beijing summit with Xi Jinping, where he reiterated opposition to independence but emphasized peace. U.S. deterrence, Taiwan's asymmetric defenses, and logistical barriers for amphibious operations sustain this positioning, though sudden escalations like major crises or diplomatic breakdowns could shift odds before resolution.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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