Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 90.5% probability against a US-China military clash before 2027, reflecting a March 2026 US intelligence community assessment that Beijing lacks commitment to a Taiwan invasion that year and is unprepared for major confrontation amid ongoing PLA purges and capability gaps. No escalatory incidents have occurred in the Taiwan Strait or South China Sea in recent weeks, with tensions limited to routine drills and diplomatic posturing, including China's April calls for de-escalation. While flashpoints persist—such as Scarborough Shoal disputes—traders weigh structural barriers like economic interdependence and global distractions, viewing late-breaking diplomacy or accidents as low-probability triggers for conflict before the deadline.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$71,406 거래량
$71,406 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$71,406 거래량
$71,406 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 90.5% probability against a US-China military clash before 2027, reflecting a March 2026 US intelligence community assessment that Beijing lacks commitment to a Taiwan invasion that year and is unprepared for major confrontation amid ongoing PLA purges and capability gaps. No escalatory incidents have occurred in the Taiwan Strait or South China Sea in recent weeks, with tensions limited to routine drills and diplomatic posturing, including China's April calls for de-escalation. While flashpoints persist—such as Scarborough Shoal disputes—traders weigh structural barriers like economic interdependence and global distractions, viewing late-breaking diplomacy or accidents as low-probability triggers for conflict before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ET
거래량
$71,406종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 90.5% probability against a US-China military clash before 2027, reflecting a March 2026 US intelligence community assessment that Beijing lacks commitment to a Taiwan invasion that year and is unprepared for major confrontation amid ongoing PLA purges and capability gaps. No escalatory incidents have occurred in the Taiwan Strait or South China Sea in recent weeks, with tensions limited to routine drills and diplomatic posturing, including China's April calls for de-escalation. While flashpoints persist—such as Scarborough Shoal disputes—traders weigh structural barriers like economic interdependence and global distractions, viewing late-breaking diplomacy or accidents as low-probability triggers for conflict before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$71,406종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 90.5% probability against a US-China military clash before 2027, reflecting a March 2026 US intelligence community assessment that Beijing lacks commitment to a Taiwan invasion that year and is unprepared for major confrontation amid ongoing PLA purges and capability gaps. No escalatory incidents have occurred in the Taiwan Strait or South China Sea in recent weeks, with tensions limited to routine drills and diplomatic posturing, including China's April calls for de-escalation. While flashpoints persist—such as Scarborough Shoal disputes—traders weigh structural barriers like economic interdependence and global distractions, viewing late-breaking diplomacy or accidents as low-probability triggers for conflict before the deadline.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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