Trader consensus favors "No" at 86% for a China-Japan military clash before 2027, driven by persistent gray-zone activities around the disputed Senkaku Islands—such as frequent Chinese coast guard patrols—but no verified kinetic exchanges between People's Liberation Army forces and Japan Self-Defense Forces. Japan's April 10 diplomatic bluebook slightly downgraded bilateral ties amid Beijing's export restrictions on dual-use items, yet both sides prioritize restraint amid economic interdependence. Recent Japanese deployments of Type 25 missiles to southwestern islands near Taiwan and receipt of U.S. Tomahawk cruise missiles bolster deterrence without provocation, aligning with U.S. intelligence assessments downplaying imminent conflict risks through 2027 despite coercive pressures in the Indo-Pacific.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$594,385 거래량
$594,385 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$594,385 거래량
$594,385 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Japan between November 17, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Japanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Japan Coast Guard (JCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors "No" at 86% for a China-Japan military clash before 2027, driven by persistent gray-zone activities around the disputed Senkaku Islands—such as frequent Chinese coast guard patrols—but no verified kinetic exchanges between People's Liberation Army forces and Japan Self-Defense Forces. Japan's April 10 diplomatic bluebook slightly downgraded bilateral ties amid Beijing's export restrictions on dual-use items, yet both sides prioritize restraint amid economic interdependence. Recent Japanese deployments of Type 25 missiles to southwestern islands near Taiwan and receipt of U.S. Tomahawk cruise missiles bolster deterrence without provocation, aligning with U.S. intelligence assessments downplaying imminent conflict risks through 2027 despite coercive pressures in the Indo-Pacific.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Japan between November 17, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Japanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Japan Coast Guard (JCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Japanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Japan Coast Guard (JCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Nov 18, 2025, 10:43 AM ET
거래량
$594,385종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 18, 2025, 10:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Japan between November 17, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Japanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Japan Coast Guard (JCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors "No" at 86% for a China-Japan military clash before 2027, driven by persistent gray-zone activities around the disputed Senkaku Islands—such as frequent Chinese coast guard patrols—but no verified kinetic exchanges between People's Liberation Army forces and Japan Self-Defense Forces. Japan's April 10 diplomatic bluebook slightly downgraded bilateral ties amid Beijing's export restrictions on dual-use items, yet both sides prioritize restraint amid economic interdependence. Recent Japanese deployments of Type 25 missiles to southwestern islands near Taiwan and receipt of U.S. Tomahawk cruise missiles bolster deterrence without provocation, aligning with U.S. intelligence assessments downplaying imminent conflict risks through 2027 despite coercive pressures in the Indo-Pacific.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Japan between November 17, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Japanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Japan Coast Guard (JCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Japanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Japan Coast Guard (JCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$594,385종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 18, 2025, 10:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favors "No" at 86% for a China-Japan military clash before 2027, driven by persistent gray-zone activities around the disputed Senkaku Islands—such as frequent Chinese coast guard patrols—but no verified kinetic exchanges between People's Liberation Army forces and Japan Self-Defense Forces. Japan's April 10 diplomatic bluebook slightly downgraded bilateral ties amid Beijing's export restrictions on dual-use items, yet both sides prioritize restraint amid economic interdependence. Recent Japanese deployments of Type 25 missiles to southwestern islands near Taiwan and receipt of U.S. Tomahawk cruise missiles bolster deterrence without provocation, aligning with U.S. intelligence assessments downplaying imminent conflict risks through 2027 despite coercive pressures in the Indo-Pacific.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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