U.S. intelligence's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, released mid-month, concluded China is not currently planning a Taiwan invasion by 2027 and prefers unification without force, anchoring trader consensus at 81.5% for "No." This assessment, prioritizing primary sources over prior speculation, overrides earlier concerns tied to PLA centenary goals. Recent PLA warplanes and warships in the Taiwan Strait persist as coercive signals—such as April drills—but show no escalation toward amphibious assault amid U.S. arms deliveries and deterrence. Taiwan's 2028 elections loom as a potential diplomatic pivot, while economic interdependence and invasion risks sustain low odds through year-end.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$279,327 거래량
$279,327 거래량
2027.12.31
4% 수익
예
$279,327 거래량
$279,327 거래량
2027.12.31
4% 수익
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.U.S. intelligence's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, released mid-month, concluded China is not currently planning a Taiwan invasion by 2027 and prefers unification without force, anchoring trader consensus at 81.5% for "No." This assessment, prioritizing primary sources over prior speculation, overrides earlier concerns tied to PLA centenary goals. Recent PLA warplanes and warships in the Taiwan Strait persist as coercive signals—such as April drills—but show no escalation toward amphibious assault amid U.S. arms deliveries and deterrence. Taiwan's 2028 elections loom as a potential diplomatic pivot, while economic interdependence and invasion risks sustain low odds through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
마켓 개설일: Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
거래량
$279,327종료일
2027.12.31마켓 개설일
Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ETWe anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.U.S. intelligence's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, released mid-month, concluded China is not currently planning a Taiwan invasion by 2027 and prefers unification without force, anchoring trader consensus at 81.5% for "No." This assessment, prioritizing primary sources over prior speculation, overrides earlier concerns tied to PLA centenary goals. Recent PLA warplanes and warships in the Taiwan Strait persist as coercive signals—such as April drills—but show no escalation toward amphibious assault amid U.S. arms deliveries and deterrence. Taiwan's 2028 elections loom as a potential diplomatic pivot, while economic interdependence and invasion risks sustain low odds through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
거래량
$279,327종료일
2027.12.31마켓 개설일
Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ETWe anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
U.S. intelligence's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, released mid-month, concluded China is not currently planning a Taiwan invasion by 2027 and prefers unification without force, anchoring trader consensus at 81.5% for "No." This assessment, prioritizing primary sources over prior speculation, overrides earlier concerns tied to PLA centenary goals. Recent PLA warplanes and warships in the Taiwan Strait persist as coercive signals—such as April drills—but show no escalation toward amphibious assault amid U.S. arms deliveries and deterrence. Taiwan's 2028 elections loom as a potential diplomatic pivot, while economic interdependence and invasion risks sustain low odds through year-end.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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