Recent maritime incidents in the South China Sea, including Chinese forces firing flares at a Philippine Coast Guard aircraft over the Spratly Islands on April 9 and accusations of cyanide dumping by Chinese vessels near Second Thomas Shoal this week, have heightened tensions without escalating to armed conflict. These follow a March 30 near-collision between Philippine and Chinese warships near Thitu Island, yet both nations resumed formal bilateral consultations in late March—the first since early 2025—focusing on non-sensitive cooperation amid ongoing harassment of Philippine resupply missions and fishing boats by Chinese coast guard and maritime militia. Traders price an 81% "No" probability for a military clash before 2027, reflecting de-escalation signals like revived diplomacy, U.S.-Philippines joint exercises deterring aggression, and mutual restraint to avoid broader confrontation despite gray-zone tactics at Scarborough Shoal and beyond.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$241,580 거래량
$241,580 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$241,580 거래량
$241,580 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent maritime incidents in the South China Sea, including Chinese forces firing flares at a Philippine Coast Guard aircraft over the Spratly Islands on April 9 and accusations of cyanide dumping by Chinese vessels near Second Thomas Shoal this week, have heightened tensions without escalating to armed conflict. These follow a March 30 near-collision between Philippine and Chinese warships near Thitu Island, yet both nations resumed formal bilateral consultations in late March—the first since early 2025—focusing on non-sensitive cooperation amid ongoing harassment of Philippine resupply missions and fishing boats by Chinese coast guard and maritime militia. Traders price an 81% "No" probability for a military clash before 2027, reflecting de-escalation signals like revived diplomacy, U.S.-Philippines joint exercises deterring aggression, and mutual restraint to avoid broader confrontation despite gray-zone tactics at Scarborough Shoal and beyond.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Nov 13, 2025, 5:56 PM ET
거래량
$241,580종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 13, 2025, 5:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent maritime incidents in the South China Sea, including Chinese forces firing flares at a Philippine Coast Guard aircraft over the Spratly Islands on April 9 and accusations of cyanide dumping by Chinese vessels near Second Thomas Shoal this week, have heightened tensions without escalating to armed conflict. These follow a March 30 near-collision between Philippine and Chinese warships near Thitu Island, yet both nations resumed formal bilateral consultations in late March—the first since early 2025—focusing on non-sensitive cooperation amid ongoing harassment of Philippine resupply missions and fishing boats by Chinese coast guard and maritime militia. Traders price an 81% "No" probability for a military clash before 2027, reflecting de-escalation signals like revived diplomacy, U.S.-Philippines joint exercises deterring aggression, and mutual restraint to avoid broader confrontation despite gray-zone tactics at Scarborough Shoal and beyond.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$241,580종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 13, 2025, 5:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent maritime incidents in the South China Sea, including Chinese forces firing flares at a Philippine Coast Guard aircraft over the Spratly Islands on April 9 and accusations of cyanide dumping by Chinese vessels near Second Thomas Shoal this week, have heightened tensions without escalating to armed conflict. These follow a March 30 near-collision between Philippine and Chinese warships near Thitu Island, yet both nations resumed formal bilateral consultations in late March—the first since early 2025—focusing on non-sensitive cooperation amid ongoing harassment of Philippine resupply missions and fishing boats by Chinese coast guard and maritime militia. Traders price an 81% "No" probability for a military clash before 2027, reflecting de-escalation signals like revived diplomacy, U.S.-Philippines joint exercises deterring aggression, and mutual restraint to avoid broader confrontation despite gray-zone tactics at Scarborough Shoal and beyond.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문