Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 86.5% implied probability against a Chinese company claiming the top large language model by year-end, driven by persistent U.S. leadership in AI benchmarks despite rapid Chinese gains. Stanford's 2026 AI Index, released this week, reveals the U.S.-China performance gap has shrunk to just 2.7 percentage points, with models from Alibaba's Qwen3.6-Plus and Baidu's ERNIE-5.0 entering global top-10 rankings like LMSYS Chatbot Arena and LMArena, occasionally trading positions with leaders such as Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 and OpenAI's GPT-5.4. However, U.S. firms maintain edges in multimodal capabilities and agentic AI via superior compute access amid ongoing export controls, fueling bets on upcoming releases like potential GPT-6 or Claude 5 to widen the lead before December 31. Chinese efficiency innovations narrow costs but face scaling hurdles, underscoring the "wisdom of crowds" in prediction markets.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.12.31
신규
신규
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Chinese company owns the model that has the highest arena score, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, ByteDance, Baidu, Moonshot, Z.ai, DeepSeek, Meituan, Xiaomi, StepFun, Tencent, and MiniMax. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Models will be ranked by their arena score at the market’s check time. This market resolves to “Yes” only if a Chinese company’s model holds a strictly higher score than all others; ties will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 86.5% implied probability against a Chinese company claiming the top large language model by year-end, driven by persistent U.S. leadership in AI benchmarks despite rapid Chinese gains. Stanford's 2026 AI Index, released this week, reveals the U.S.-China performance gap has shrunk to just 2.7 percentage points, with models from Alibaba's Qwen3.6-Plus and Baidu's ERNIE-5.0 entering global top-10 rankings like LMSYS Chatbot Arena and LMArena, occasionally trading positions with leaders such as Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 and OpenAI's GPT-5.4. However, U.S. firms maintain edges in multimodal capabilities and agentic AI via superior compute access amid ongoing export controls, fueling bets on upcoming releases like potential GPT-6 or Claude 5 to widen the lead before December 31. Chinese efficiency innovations narrow costs but face scaling hurdles, underscoring the "wisdom of crowds" in prediction markets.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Chinese company owns the model that has the highest arena score, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, ByteDance, Baidu, Moonshot, Z.ai, DeepSeek, Meituan, Xiaomi, StepFun, Tencent, and MiniMax. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Models will be ranked by their arena score at the market’s check time. This market resolves to “Yes” only if a Chinese company’s model holds a strictly higher score than all others; ties will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, ByteDance, Baidu, Moonshot, Z.ai, DeepSeek, Meituan, Xiaomi, StepFun, Tencent, and MiniMax. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Models will be ranked by their arena score at the market’s check time. This market resolves to “Yes” only if a Chinese company’s model holds a strictly higher score than all others; ties will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
마켓 개설일: Apr 2, 2026, 5:52 PM ET
거래량
$2,253종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Apr 2, 2026, 5:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Chinese company owns the model that has the highest arena score, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, ByteDance, Baidu, Moonshot, Z.ai, DeepSeek, Meituan, Xiaomi, StepFun, Tencent, and MiniMax. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Models will be ranked by their arena score at the market’s check time. This market resolves to “Yes” only if a Chinese company’s model holds a strictly higher score than all others; ties will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 86.5% implied probability against a Chinese company claiming the top large language model by year-end, driven by persistent U.S. leadership in AI benchmarks despite rapid Chinese gains. Stanford's 2026 AI Index, released this week, reveals the U.S.-China performance gap has shrunk to just 2.7 percentage points, with models from Alibaba's Qwen3.6-Plus and Baidu's ERNIE-5.0 entering global top-10 rankings like LMSYS Chatbot Arena and LMArena, occasionally trading positions with leaders such as Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 and OpenAI's GPT-5.4. However, U.S. firms maintain edges in multimodal capabilities and agentic AI via superior compute access amid ongoing export controls, fueling bets on upcoming releases like potential GPT-6 or Claude 5 to widen the lead before December 31. Chinese efficiency innovations narrow costs but face scaling hurdles, underscoring the "wisdom of crowds" in prediction markets.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Chinese company owns the model that has the highest arena score, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, ByteDance, Baidu, Moonshot, Z.ai, DeepSeek, Meituan, Xiaomi, StepFun, Tencent, and MiniMax. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Models will be ranked by their arena score at the market’s check time. This market resolves to “Yes” only if a Chinese company’s model holds a strictly higher score than all others; ties will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, ByteDance, Baidu, Moonshot, Z.ai, DeepSeek, Meituan, Xiaomi, StepFun, Tencent, and MiniMax. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Models will be ranked by their arena score at the market’s check time. This market resolves to “Yes” only if a Chinese company’s model holds a strictly higher score than all others; ties will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
거래량
$2,253종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Apr 2, 2026, 5:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 86.5% implied probability against a Chinese company claiming the top large language model by year-end, driven by persistent U.S. leadership in AI benchmarks despite rapid Chinese gains. Stanford's 2026 AI Index, released this week, reveals the U.S.-China performance gap has shrunk to just 2.7 percentage points, with models from Alibaba's Qwen3.6-Plus and Baidu's ERNIE-5.0 entering global top-10 rankings like LMSYS Chatbot Arena and LMArena, occasionally trading positions with leaders such as Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 and OpenAI's GPT-5.4. However, U.S. firms maintain edges in multimodal capabilities and agentic AI via superior compute access amid ongoing export controls, fueling bets on upcoming releases like potential GPT-6 or Claude 5 to widen the lead before December 31. Chinese efficiency innovations narrow costs but face scaling hurdles, underscoring the "wisdom of crowds" in prediction markets.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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