Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns Anthropic a 59% implied probability of holding the top spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena "Style Control On" leaderboard by June 30, 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's sustained dominance since its February launch, topping global Elo ratings at around 1502-1549 in coding, reasoning, and overall benchmarks amid rapid updates like computer use and skills integration through April. Google trails at 14.5% on Gemini 3.1 Pro's March multimodal enhancements and TPU-backed ecosystem advantages, while Z.ai's GLM-4.6 garners 6.2% from Chinese model convergence noted in Stanford's 2026 AI Index, narrowing top gaps to 2.7%. OpenAI and xAI linger at 5.5% each, awaiting potential pre-deadline releases that could shift dynamics in this closely watched AI capability race.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트Anthropic 59%
구글 14%
아마존 5.8%
Z.ai 5.7%
$1,259,337 거래량
$1,259,337 거래량
2026.06.30
Anthropic
59%
구글
14%
아마존
6%
Z.ai
6%
xAI
5%
OpenAI
5%
메이투안
3%
메타
2%
알리바바
1%
DeepSeek
1%
미스트랄
1%
문샷
1%
바이트댄스
1%
마이크로소프트
1%
바이두
<1%
Anthropic 59%
구글 14%
아마존 5.8%
Z.ai 5.7%
$1,259,337 거래량
$1,259,337 거래량
2026.06.30
Anthropic
$20,000 거래량
59%
구글
$11,256 거래량
14%
아마존
$4,822 거래량
6%
Z.ai
$378,866 거래량
6%
xAI
$9,432 거래량
5%
OpenAI
$44,641 거래량
5%
메이투안
$224,792 거래량
3%
메타
$2,455 거래량
2%
알리바바
$128,747 거래량
1%
DeepSeek
$179,394 거래량
1%
미스트랄
$45,978 거래량
1%
문샷
$198,451 거래량
1%
바이트댄스
$5,353 거래량
1%
마이크로소프트
$2,355 거래량
1%
바이두
$2,806 거래량
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns Anthropic a 59% implied probability of holding the top spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena "Style Control On" leaderboard by June 30, 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's sustained dominance since its February launch, topping global Elo ratings at around 1502-1549 in coding, reasoning, and overall benchmarks amid rapid updates like computer use and skills integration through April. Google trails at 14.5% on Gemini 3.1 Pro's March multimodal enhancements and TPU-backed ecosystem advantages, while Z.ai's GLM-4.6 garners 6.2% from Chinese model convergence noted in Stanford's 2026 AI Index, narrowing top gaps to 2.7%. OpenAI and xAI linger at 5.5% each, awaiting potential pre-deadline releases that could shift dynamics in this closely watched AI capability race.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
마켓 개설일: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
거래량
$1,259,337종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns Anthropic a 59% implied probability of holding the top spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena "Style Control On" leaderboard by June 30, 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's sustained dominance since its February launch, topping global Elo ratings at around 1502-1549 in coding, reasoning, and overall benchmarks amid rapid updates like computer use and skills integration through April. Google trails at 14.5% on Gemini 3.1 Pro's March multimodal enhancements and TPU-backed ecosystem advantages, while Z.ai's GLM-4.6 garners 6.2% from Chinese model convergence noted in Stanford's 2026 AI Index, narrowing top gaps to 2.7%. OpenAI and xAI linger at 5.5% each, awaiting potential pre-deadline releases that could shift dynamics in this closely watched AI capability race.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
거래량
$1,259,337종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns Anthropic a 59% implied probability of holding the top spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena "Style Control On" leaderboard by June 30, 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's sustained dominance since its February launch, topping global Elo ratings at around 1502-1549 in coding, reasoning, and overall benchmarks amid rapid updates like computer use and skills integration through April. Google trails at 14.5% on Gemini 3.1 Pro's March multimodal enhancements and TPU-backed ecosystem advantages, while Z.ai's GLM-4.6 garners 6.2% from Chinese model convergence noted in Stanford's 2026 AI Index, narrowing top gaps to 2.7%. OpenAI and xAI linger at 5.5% each, awaiting potential pre-deadline releases that could shift dynamics in this closely watched AI capability race.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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