Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking commands a dominant 92.5% implied probability on Polymarket as the #1 AI model by April's end, driven by its current lead at 1502 Elo on LMArena's Text leaderboard (Style Control On)—six points ahead of its base variant and nine ahead of Meta's Muse-Spark. This positioning stems from a recent surge in mid-April human preference battles, where Claude excelled in coding, reasoning, and creative tasks, solidifying trader consensus amid thousands of votes. No major rivals like OpenAI's GPT-5.4 (trailing at lower Elo) or Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro have announced imminent releases, with open challengers like Z.ai's GLM-5.1 competitive but not overtaking frontiers. Realistic threats include surprise previews from OpenAI or Google before April 30, though historical launch timelines suggest low odds of leaderboard flips in under two weeks.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트Anthropic 93%
OpenAI 3.5%
구글 1.1%
xAI 1.0%
$1,147,915 거래량
$1,147,915 거래량
2026.04.30
Anthropic
93%
OpenAI
3%
구글
1%
xAI
1%
Meta
1%
문샷
1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
알리바바
<1%
아마존
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
미스트랄
<1%
미투안
<1%
바이두
<1%
마이크로소프트
<1%
Anthropic 93%
OpenAI 3.5%
구글 1.1%
xAI 1.0%
$1,147,915 거래량
$1,147,915 거래량
2026.04.30
Anthropic
$64,107 거래량
93%
OpenAI
$115,748 거래량
3%
구글
$149,431 거래량
1%
xAI
$149,142 거래량
1%
Meta
$5,349 거래량
1%
문샷
$89,850 거래량
1%
DeepSeek
$257,067 거래량
<1%
Z.ai
$54,463 거래량
<1%
알리바바
$29,445 거래량
<1%
아마존
$40,591 거래량
<1%
ByteDance
$20,295 거래량
<1%
미스트랄
$95,150 거래량
<1%
미투안
$36,277 거래량
<1%
바이두
$40,538 거래량
<1%
마이크로소프트
$493 거래량
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking commands a dominant 92.5% implied probability on Polymarket as the #1 AI model by April's end, driven by its current lead at 1502 Elo on LMArena's Text leaderboard (Style Control On)—six points ahead of its base variant and nine ahead of Meta's Muse-Spark. This positioning stems from a recent surge in mid-April human preference battles, where Claude excelled in coding, reasoning, and creative tasks, solidifying trader consensus amid thousands of votes. No major rivals like OpenAI's GPT-5.4 (trailing at lower Elo) or Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro have announced imminent releases, with open challengers like Z.ai's GLM-5.1 competitive but not overtaking frontiers. Realistic threats include surprise previews from OpenAI or Google before April 30, though historical launch timelines suggest low odds of leaderboard flips in under two weeks.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
마켓 개설일: Mar 20, 2026, 4:39 PM ET
거래량
$1,147,915종료일
2026.04.30마켓 개설일
Mar 20, 2026, 4:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking commands a dominant 92.5% implied probability on Polymarket as the #1 AI model by April's end, driven by its current lead at 1502 Elo on LMArena's Text leaderboard (Style Control On)—six points ahead of its base variant and nine ahead of Meta's Muse-Spark. This positioning stems from a recent surge in mid-April human preference battles, where Claude excelled in coding, reasoning, and creative tasks, solidifying trader consensus amid thousands of votes. No major rivals like OpenAI's GPT-5.4 (trailing at lower Elo) or Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro have announced imminent releases, with open challengers like Z.ai's GLM-5.1 competitive but not overtaking frontiers. Realistic threats include surprise previews from OpenAI or Google before April 30, though historical launch timelines suggest low odds of leaderboard flips in under two weeks.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
거래량
$1,147,915종료일
2026.04.30마켓 개설일
Mar 20, 2026, 4:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking commands a dominant 92.5% implied probability on Polymarket as the #1 AI model by April's end, driven by its current lead at 1502 Elo on LMArena's Text leaderboard (Style Control On)—six points ahead of its base variant and nine ahead of Meta's Muse-Spark. This positioning stems from a recent surge in mid-April human preference battles, where Claude excelled in coding, reasoning, and creative tasks, solidifying trader consensus amid thousands of votes. No major rivals like OpenAI's GPT-5.4 (trailing at lower Elo) or Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro have announced imminent releases, with open challengers like Z.ai's GLM-5.1 competitive but not overtaking frontiers. Realistic threats include surprise previews from OpenAI or Google before April 30, though historical launch timelines suggest low odds of leaderboard flips in under two weeks.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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