Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors Anthropic (78.5% implied probability) to claim the third-best large language model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by April 30, 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's sustained dominance in coding and agentic benchmarks, where it holds top Elo scores as of April 6. OpenAI's GPT-5.4 and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro currently occupy the top two spots post their March releases, with minimal shifts in recent rankings amid a flurry of minor updates from Chinese labs like DeepSeek and Qwen. Google's 11% odds reflect potential boosts from the upcoming I/O event, while OpenAI's lower 3.6% stems from expectations of further GPT-5.5 progress solidifying its lead; no major catalysts threaten Anthropic's position in the next two weeks.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트Anthropic 79%
구글 11%
OpenAI 3.7%
메타 2.7%
$357,580 거래량
$357,580 거래량
2026.04.30
Anthropic
79%
구글
11%
OpenAI
4%
메타
3%
DeepSeek
<1%
xAI
<1%
바이트댄스
<1%
바이두
<1%
알리바바
<1%
아마존
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
마이크로소프트
<1%
미스트랄
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
메이투안
<1%
Anthropic 79%
구글 11%
OpenAI 3.7%
메타 2.7%
$357,580 거래량
$357,580 거래량
2026.04.30
Anthropic
$52,662 거래량
79%
구글
$41,148 거래량
11%
OpenAI
$19,453 거래량
4%
메타
$7,414 거래량
3%
DeepSeek
$43,074 거래량
<1%
xAI
$37,929 거래량
<1%
바이트댄스
$19,655 거래량
<1%
바이두
$14,407 거래량
<1%
알리바바
$27,817 거래량
<1%
아마존
$26,532 거래량
<1%
Z.ai
$26,399 거래량
<1%
마이크로소프트
$5,331 거래량
<1%
미스트랄
$11,009 거래량
<1%
Moonshot
$12,137 거래량
<1%
메이투안
$12,613 거래량
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors Anthropic (78.5% implied probability) to claim the third-best large language model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by April 30, 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's sustained dominance in coding and agentic benchmarks, where it holds top Elo scores as of April 6. OpenAI's GPT-5.4 and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro currently occupy the top two spots post their March releases, with minimal shifts in recent rankings amid a flurry of minor updates from Chinese labs like DeepSeek and Qwen. Google's 11% odds reflect potential boosts from the upcoming I/O event, while OpenAI's lower 3.6% stems from expectations of further GPT-5.5 progress solidifying its lead; no major catalysts threaten Anthropic's position in the next two weeks.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
마켓 개설일: Mar 20, 2026, 4:21 PM ET
거래량
$357,580종료일
2026.04.30마켓 개설일
Mar 20, 2026, 4:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors Anthropic (78.5% implied probability) to claim the third-best large language model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by April 30, 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's sustained dominance in coding and agentic benchmarks, where it holds top Elo scores as of April 6. OpenAI's GPT-5.4 and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro currently occupy the top two spots post their March releases, with minimal shifts in recent rankings amid a flurry of minor updates from Chinese labs like DeepSeek and Qwen. Google's 11% odds reflect potential boosts from the upcoming I/O event, while OpenAI's lower 3.6% stems from expectations of further GPT-5.5 progress solidifying its lead; no major catalysts threaten Anthropic's position in the next two weeks.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
거래량
$357,580종료일
2026.04.30마켓 개설일
Mar 20, 2026, 4:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors Anthropic (78.5% implied probability) to claim the third-best large language model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by April 30, 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's sustained dominance in coding and agentic benchmarks, where it holds top Elo scores as of April 6. OpenAI's GPT-5.4 and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro currently occupy the top two spots post their March releases, with minimal shifts in recent rankings amid a flurry of minor updates from Chinese labs like DeepSeek and Qwen. Google's 11% odds reflect potential boosts from the upcoming I/O event, while OpenAI's lower 3.6% stems from expectations of further GPT-5.5 progress solidifying its lead; no major catalysts threaten Anthropic's position in the next two weeks.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문