Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 has surged to the top of the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with an Elo score of 1502, eclipsing OpenAI's GPT-5.4 and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro in head-to-head human evaluations, driving trader consensus to a 77% implied probability of retaining the best AI model by May 31. This follows Anthropic's explosive Q1 2026 roadmap, including the February launch of Opus 4.6—a major capability leap—and recent demos like identifying thousands of zero-day vulnerabilities across major OSes and browsers on April 7, plus extended 30-hour autonomous operation. Google holds 16% as a close second amid competitive Gemini updates, while OpenAI and xAI trail due to delayed next-gen releases like GPT-5.5 or Grok-3; watch for pre-May announcements that could shift dynamics, as AI benchmarks evolve rapidly with new model drops.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트Anthropic 77%
구글 16%
OpenAI 5%
xAI 3.4%
신규
$19,524 거래량
신규
$19,524 거래량
2026.05.31
Anthropic
77%
구글
16%
OpenAI
5%
xAI
3%
DeepSeek
2%
메이투안
1%
메타
<1%
바이트댄스
<1%
알리바바
<1%
문샷
<1%
바이두
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
마이크로소프트
<1%
아마존
5%
미스트랄
<1%
Anthropic 77%
구글 16%
OpenAI 5%
xAI 3.4%
신규
$19,524 거래량
신규
$19,524 거래량
2026.05.31
Anthropic
$2,128 거래량
77%
구글
$1,321 거래량
16%
OpenAI
$1,443 거래량
5%
xAI
$1,439 거래량
3%
DeepSeek
$1,258 거래량
2%
메이투안
$1,486 거래량
1%
메타
$1,134 거래량
<1%
바이트댄스
$1,206 거래량
<1%
알리바바
$1,206 거래량
<1%
문샷
$1,206 거래량
<1%
바이두
$1,348 거래량
<1%
Z.ai
$1,206 거래량
<1%
마이크로소프트
$1,143 거래량
<1%
아마존
$1,191 거래량
5%
미스트랄
$808 거래량
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 has surged to the top of the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with an Elo score of 1502, eclipsing OpenAI's GPT-5.4 and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro in head-to-head human evaluations, driving trader consensus to a 77% implied probability of retaining the best AI model by May 31. This follows Anthropic's explosive Q1 2026 roadmap, including the February launch of Opus 4.6—a major capability leap—and recent demos like identifying thousands of zero-day vulnerabilities across major OSes and browsers on April 7, plus extended 30-hour autonomous operation. Google holds 16% as a close second amid competitive Gemini updates, while OpenAI and xAI trail due to delayed next-gen releases like GPT-5.5 or Grok-3; watch for pre-May announcements that could shift dynamics, as AI benchmarks evolve rapidly with new model drops.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
마켓 개설일: Apr 14, 2026, 5:17 PM ET
거래량
$19,524종료일
2026.05.31마켓 개설일
Apr 14, 2026, 5:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 has surged to the top of the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with an Elo score of 1502, eclipsing OpenAI's GPT-5.4 and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro in head-to-head human evaluations, driving trader consensus to a 77% implied probability of retaining the best AI model by May 31. This follows Anthropic's explosive Q1 2026 roadmap, including the February launch of Opus 4.6—a major capability leap—and recent demos like identifying thousands of zero-day vulnerabilities across major OSes and browsers on April 7, plus extended 30-hour autonomous operation. Google holds 16% as a close second amid competitive Gemini updates, while OpenAI and xAI trail due to delayed next-gen releases like GPT-5.5 or Grok-3; watch for pre-May announcements that could shift dynamics, as AI benchmarks evolve rapidly with new model drops.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
거래량
$19,524종료일
2026.05.31마켓 개설일
Apr 14, 2026, 5:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 has surged to the top of the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with an Elo score of 1502, eclipsing OpenAI's GPT-5.4 and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro in head-to-head human evaluations, driving trader consensus to a 77% implied probability of retaining the best AI model by May 31. This follows Anthropic's explosive Q1 2026 roadmap, including the February launch of Opus 4.6—a major capability leap—and recent demos like identifying thousands of zero-day vulnerabilities across major OSes and browsers on April 7, plus extended 30-hour autonomous operation. Google holds 16% as a close second amid competitive Gemini updates, while OpenAI and xAI trail due to delayed next-gen releases like GPT-5.5 or Grok-3; watch for pre-May announcements that could shift dynamics, as AI benchmarks evolve rapidly with new model drops.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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