Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic's claude-opus-4-6-thinking at 83.9% implied probability for the top AI model on April 17, driven by its commanding #1 position on the LMArena text leaderboard (style control off) with a 1502 Elo score as of April 14—well ahead of rivals like claude-opus-4-6 (1496 Elo) and Meta's muse-spark (1495 preliminary). This extended chain-of-thought mode in Claude Opus 4.6, released in February, continues to dominate human preference battles in coding, reasoning, and open-ended text tasks despite early April user complaints of "AI shrinkflation" from reduced thinking depth to conserve compute for upcoming models like Mythos. With resolution imminent via tomorrow's leaderboard snapshot, no credible challengers from OpenAI's GPT-5.4 high or Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro preview have closed the gap, reflecting strong skin-in-the-game confidence in its staying power amid rapid AI benchmarking shifts.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트claude-opus-4-6-thinking 83.0%
gpt-5.4-high 1.1%
gemini-3.1-pro-preview 1.0%
claude-opus-4-6 <1%
$17,700 거래량
$17,700 거래량
2026.04.17
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
83%
gpt-5.4-high
1%
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
1%
claude-opus-4-6
1%
grok-4.20-beta1
1%
muse-spark
1%
glm-5.1
1%
gemini-3-flash
<1%
dola-seed-2.0-preview
<1%
qwen3.5-max-preview
<1%
gemini-3-pro
<1%
gemini-2.5-pro
<1%
kimi-k2.5-thinking
<1%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking 83.0%
gpt-5.4-high 1.1%
gemini-3.1-pro-preview 1.0%
claude-opus-4-6 <1%
$17,700 거래량
$17,700 거래량
2026.04.17
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
$13,474 거래량
83%
gpt-5.4-high
$500 거래량
1%
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
$325 거래량
1%
claude-opus-4-6
$1,427 거래량
1%
grok-4.20-beta1
$347 거래량
1%
muse-spark
$216 거래량
1%
glm-5.1
$66 거래량
1%
gemini-3-flash
$168 거래량
<1%
dola-seed-2.0-preview
$218 거래량
<1%
qwen3.5-max-preview
$307 거래량
<1%
gemini-3-pro
$143 거래량
<1%
gemini-2.5-pro
$235 거래량
<1%
kimi-k2.5-thinking
$275 거래량
<1%
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 17, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve based on the model that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic's claude-opus-4-6-thinking at 83.9% implied probability for the top AI model on April 17, driven by its commanding #1 position on the LMArena text leaderboard (style control off) with a 1502 Elo score as of April 14—well ahead of rivals like claude-opus-4-6 (1496 Elo) and Meta's muse-spark (1495 preliminary). This extended chain-of-thought mode in Claude Opus 4.6, released in February, continues to dominate human preference battles in coding, reasoning, and open-ended text tasks despite early April user complaints of "AI shrinkflation" from reduced thinking depth to conserve compute for upcoming models like Mythos. With resolution imminent via tomorrow's leaderboard snapshot, no credible challengers from OpenAI's GPT-5.4 high or Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro preview have closed the gap, reflecting strong skin-in-the-game confidence in its staying power amid rapid AI benchmarking shifts.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 17, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve based on the model that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve based on the model that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
마켓 개설일: Apr 9, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
거래량
$17,700종료일
2026.04.17마켓 개설일
Apr 9, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 17, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve based on the model that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic's claude-opus-4-6-thinking at 83.9% implied probability for the top AI model on April 17, driven by its commanding #1 position on the LMArena text leaderboard (style control off) with a 1502 Elo score as of April 14—well ahead of rivals like claude-opus-4-6 (1496 Elo) and Meta's muse-spark (1495 preliminary). This extended chain-of-thought mode in Claude Opus 4.6, released in February, continues to dominate human preference battles in coding, reasoning, and open-ended text tasks despite early April user complaints of "AI shrinkflation" from reduced thinking depth to conserve compute for upcoming models like Mythos. With resolution imminent via tomorrow's leaderboard snapshot, no credible challengers from OpenAI's GPT-5.4 high or Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro preview have closed the gap, reflecting strong skin-in-the-game confidence in its staying power amid rapid AI benchmarking shifts.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 17, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve based on the model that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve based on the model that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
거래량
$17,700종료일
2026.04.17마켓 개설일
Apr 9, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic's claude-opus-4-6-thinking at 83.9% implied probability for the top AI model on April 17, driven by its commanding #1 position on the LMArena text leaderboard (style control off) with a 1502 Elo score as of April 14—well ahead of rivals like claude-opus-4-6 (1496 Elo) and Meta's muse-spark (1495 preliminary). This extended chain-of-thought mode in Claude Opus 4.6, released in February, continues to dominate human preference battles in coding, reasoning, and open-ended text tasks despite early April user complaints of "AI shrinkflation" from reduced thinking depth to conserve compute for upcoming models like Mythos. With resolution imminent via tomorrow's leaderboard snapshot, no credible challengers from OpenAI's GPT-5.4 high or Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro preview have closed the gap, reflecting strong skin-in-the-game confidence in its staying power amid rapid AI benchmarking shifts.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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