Trader consensus gives Anthropic a commanding 90.5% implied probability of fielding the second-best AI model by end of April, anchored by the latest Arena.ai (formerly LMSYS Chatbot Arena) text leaderboard where Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking leads at 1502 Elo and base Claude Opus 4.6 holds second at 1496 Elo—a gap sustained over the past week despite close chases from Meta's Muse-Spark (1495 Elo) and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview (1493 Elo). This positioning reflects Anthropic's edge in reasoning and agentic benchmarks, with no confirmed rival releases imminent. Realistic challenges include a surprise OpenAI GPT-5.4 upgrade or Google full Gemini 3.1 launch vaulting ahead, though historical leaderboard volatility favors stability absent new capabilities.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트앤트로픽 91%
OpenAI 4.5%
구글 3.0%
딥시크 <1%
$77,563 거래량
$77,563 거래량

앤트로픽
91%

OpenAI
5%

구글
3%

딥시크
1%

메타
1%

ByteDance
<1%

문샷
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

xAI
<1%

바이두
<1%

아마존
<1%

미스트랄
<1%

메이투안
<1%

마이크로소프트
<1%

알리바바
<1%
앤트로픽 91%
OpenAI 4.5%
구글 3.0%
딥시크 <1%
$77,563 거래량
$77,563 거래량

앤트로픽
91%

OpenAI
5%

구글
3%

딥시크
1%

메타
1%

ByteDance
<1%

문샷
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

xAI
<1%

바이두
<1%

아마존
<1%

미스트랄
<1%

메이투안
<1%

마이크로소프트
<1%

알리바바
<1%
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
마켓 개설일: Mar 20, 2026, 4:21 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus gives Anthropic a commanding 90.5% implied probability of fielding the second-best AI model by end of April, anchored by the latest Arena.ai (formerly LMSYS Chatbot Arena) text leaderboard where Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking leads at 1502 Elo and base Claude Opus 4.6 holds second at 1496 Elo—a gap sustained over the past week despite close chases from Meta's Muse-Spark (1495 Elo) and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview (1493 Elo). This positioning reflects Anthropic's edge in reasoning and agentic benchmarks, with no confirmed rival releases imminent. Realistic challenges include a surprise OpenAI GPT-5.4 upgrade or Google full Gemini 3.1 launch vaulting ahead, though historical leaderboard volatility favors stability absent new capabilities.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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