Trader consensus on Polymarket positions Anthropic's Claude 4.6 as the frontrunner at 45.5% implied probability for second-best AI model by June 30, reflecting its current dominance atop LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboards with a 1,998 Elo score, ahead of Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro at 1,941. Recent April surges by Z.ai's GLM-5.1—now the top open model in Text and Code Arenas, rivaling closed-source frontiers—alongside DeepSeek V4's strong reasoning benchmarks, have heightened competition, yet traders anticipate Anthropic's edge in agentic coding and reasoning persists amid expected launches like xAI's Grok 5 or OpenAI's GPT-6. Google's 27% trails due to multimodal strengths but narrower leads; key catalysts include May developer previews and benchmark updates.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트Anthropic 46%
구글 27%
OpenAI 8.4%
DeepSeek 7.8%
$346,432 거래량
$346,432 거래량
2026.06.30
Anthropic
46%
구글
27%
OpenAI
8%
DeepSeek
8%
xAI
5%
알리바바
2%
아마존
2%
Z.ai
1%
문샷
1%
바이두
1%
메타
<1%
미투안
<1%
미스트랄
<1%
바이트댄스
<1%
마이크로소프트
<1%
Anthropic 46%
구글 27%
OpenAI 8.4%
DeepSeek 7.8%
$346,432 거래량
$346,432 거래량
2026.06.30
Anthropic
$6,559 거래량
46%
구글
$3,177 거래량
27%
OpenAI
$31,680 거래량
8%
DeepSeek
$245,778 거래량
8%
xAI
$11,911 거래량
5%
알리바바
$3,356 거래량
2%
아마존
$727 거래량
2%
Z.ai
$5,543 거래량
1%
문샷
$3,006 거래량
1%
바이두
$228 거래량
1%
메타
$273 거래량
<1%
미투안
$32,054 거래량
<1%
미스트랄
$1,532 거래량
<1%
바이트댄스
$283 거래량
<1%
마이크로소프트
$325 거래량
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket positions Anthropic's Claude 4.6 as the frontrunner at 45.5% implied probability for second-best AI model by June 30, reflecting its current dominance atop LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboards with a 1,998 Elo score, ahead of Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro at 1,941. Recent April surges by Z.ai's GLM-5.1—now the top open model in Text and Code Arenas, rivaling closed-source frontiers—alongside DeepSeek V4's strong reasoning benchmarks, have heightened competition, yet traders anticipate Anthropic's edge in agentic coding and reasoning persists amid expected launches like xAI's Grok 5 or OpenAI's GPT-6. Google's 27% trails due to multimodal strengths but narrower leads; key catalysts include May developer previews and benchmark updates.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
마켓 개설일: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
거래량
$346,432종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket positions Anthropic's Claude 4.6 as the frontrunner at 45.5% implied probability for second-best AI model by June 30, reflecting its current dominance atop LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboards with a 1,998 Elo score, ahead of Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro at 1,941. Recent April surges by Z.ai's GLM-5.1—now the top open model in Text and Code Arenas, rivaling closed-source frontiers—alongside DeepSeek V4's strong reasoning benchmarks, have heightened competition, yet traders anticipate Anthropic's edge in agentic coding and reasoning persists amid expected launches like xAI's Grok 5 or OpenAI's GPT-6. Google's 27% trails due to multimodal strengths but narrower leads; key catalysts include May developer previews and benchmark updates.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
거래량
$346,432종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket positions Anthropic's Claude 4.6 as the frontrunner at 45.5% implied probability for second-best AI model by June 30, reflecting its current dominance atop LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboards with a 1,998 Elo score, ahead of Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro at 1,941. Recent April surges by Z.ai's GLM-5.1—now the top open model in Text and Code Arenas, rivaling closed-source frontiers—alongside DeepSeek V4's strong reasoning benchmarks, have heightened competition, yet traders anticipate Anthropic's edge in agentic coding and reasoning persists amid expected launches like xAI's Grok 5 or OpenAI's GPT-6. Google's 27% trails due to multimodal strengths but narrower leads; key catalysts include May developer previews and benchmark updates.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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