Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 model currently dominates the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with top Elo scores around 1500—particularly in coding benchmarks at 1549—following its February 2026 release and rapid iterations, fueling trader consensus at a 65% implied probability for retaining the best AI model by June's end. Google trails at 18.5% after Gemini 3.1 Pro's strong February benchmarks in reasoning and SWE-bench (78.8%), while OpenAI's GPT-5.4 series, including recent April updates like GPT-5.3 Instant Mini, holds 8.5% amid competitive but non-surpassing capabilities. xAI's Grok-4 lags further; upcoming Q2 releases, such as potential Claude 5 Opus, could solidify or shift positioning amid intensifying AI scaling races.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트앤트로픽 65.1%
구글 19%
오픈AI 9%
xAI 3.9%
$3,441,057 거래량
$3,441,057 거래량
2026.06.30
앤트로픽
65%
구글
19%
오픈AI
9%
xAI
4%
메타
2%
DeepSeek
1%
아마존
1%
Z.ai
<1%
알리바바
<1%
문샷
<1%
미스트랄
<1%
바이트댄스
<1%
미투안
<1%
바이두
<1%
마이크로소프트
<1%
앤트로픽 65.1%
구글 19%
오픈AI 9%
xAI 3.9%
$3,441,057 거래량
$3,441,057 거래량
2026.06.30
앤트로픽
$610,464 거래량
65%
구글
$334,999 거래량
19%
오픈AI
$158,098 거래량
9%
xAI
$889,218 거래량
4%
메타
$17,528 거래량
2%
DeepSeek
$284,910 거래량
1%
아마존
$23,657 거래량
1%
Z.ai
$202,619 거래량
<1%
알리바바
$147,496 거래량
<1%
문샷
$149,555 거래량
<1%
미스트랄
$332,474 거래량
<1%
바이트댄스
$37,652 거래량
<1%
미투안
$189,366 거래량
<1%
바이두
$36,201 거래량
<1%
마이크로소프트
$26,818 거래량
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 model currently dominates the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with top Elo scores around 1500—particularly in coding benchmarks at 1549—following its February 2026 release and rapid iterations, fueling trader consensus at a 65% implied probability for retaining the best AI model by June's end. Google trails at 18.5% after Gemini 3.1 Pro's strong February benchmarks in reasoning and SWE-bench (78.8%), while OpenAI's GPT-5.4 series, including recent April updates like GPT-5.3 Instant Mini, holds 8.5% amid competitive but non-surpassing capabilities. xAI's Grok-4 lags further; upcoming Q2 releases, such as potential Claude 5 Opus, could solidify or shift positioning amid intensifying AI scaling races.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
마켓 개설일: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
거래량
$3,441,057종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 model currently dominates the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with top Elo scores around 1500—particularly in coding benchmarks at 1549—following its February 2026 release and rapid iterations, fueling trader consensus at a 65% implied probability for retaining the best AI model by June's end. Google trails at 18.5% after Gemini 3.1 Pro's strong February benchmarks in reasoning and SWE-bench (78.8%), while OpenAI's GPT-5.4 series, including recent April updates like GPT-5.3 Instant Mini, holds 8.5% amid competitive but non-surpassing capabilities. xAI's Grok-4 lags further; upcoming Q2 releases, such as potential Claude 5 Opus, could solidify or shift positioning amid intensifying AI scaling races.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
거래량
$3,441,057종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 model currently dominates the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with top Elo scores around 1500—particularly in coding benchmarks at 1549—following its February 2026 release and rapid iterations, fueling trader consensus at a 65% implied probability for retaining the best AI model by June's end. Google trails at 18.5% after Gemini 3.1 Pro's strong February benchmarks in reasoning and SWE-bench (78.8%), while OpenAI's GPT-5.4 series, including recent April updates like GPT-5.3 Instant Mini, holds 8.5% amid competitive but non-surpassing capabilities. xAI's Grok-4 lags further; upcoming Q2 releases, such as potential Claude 5 Opus, could solidify or shift positioning amid intensifying AI scaling races.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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