Traders have coalesced around claude-opus-4-6-thinking as the leading AI model, driven by its recent demonstrated gains in advanced reasoning benchmarks and style-controlled evaluations that set it apart from Gemini 3 variants and prior Claude releases. This market-implied consensus reflects verified capability edges in large language model tasks, including improved context handling and output quality, amid ongoing competition among labs like Anthropic, Google, and others. While the strong positioning leaves limited room for reversal before resolution, credible new model launches, updated third-party benchmarks, or shifts in evaluation criteria could still alter the outcome.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트claude-opus-4-6-thinking 100.0%
claude-opus-4-6 <1%
gemini-3.5-flash <1%
claude-opus-4-7-thinking <1%
$38,961 거래량
$38,961 거래량
2026.05.30
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
Yes
claude-opus-4-6
No
gemini-3.5-flash
No
claude-opus-4-7-thinking
No
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
No
gemini-3-pro
No
claude-opus-4-7
No
qwen3.7-max-preview
No
Other
No
claude-opus-4-6-thinking 100.0%
claude-opus-4-6 <1%
gemini-3.5-flash <1%
claude-opus-4-7-thinking <1%
$38,961 거래량
$38,961 거래량
2026.05.30
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
$17,427 거래량
Yes
claude-opus-4-6
$5,890 거래량
No
gemini-3.5-flash
$319 거래량
No
claude-opus-4-7-thinking
$1,878 거래량
No
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
$368 거래량
No
gemini-3-pro
$360 거래량
No
claude-opus-4-7
$278 거래량
No
qwen3.7-max-preview
$445 거래량
No
Other
$11,997 거래량
No
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Traders have coalesced around claude-opus-4-6-thinking as the leading AI model, driven by its recent demonstrated gains in advanced reasoning benchmarks and style-controlled evaluations that set it apart from Gemini 3 variants and prior Claude releases. This market-implied consensus reflects verified capability edges in large language model tasks, including improved context handling and output quality, amid ongoing competition among labs like Anthropic, Google, and others. While the strong positioning leaves limited room for reversal before resolution, credible new model launches, updated third-party benchmarks, or shifts in evaluation criteria could still alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
마켓 개설일: May 22, 2026, 12:53 PM ET
거래량
$38,961종료일
2026.05.30마켓 개설일
May 22, 2026, 12:53 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...결과 제안됨: Yes
이의 없음
최종 결과: Yes
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Traders have coalesced around claude-opus-4-6-thinking as the leading AI model, driven by its recent demonstrated gains in advanced reasoning benchmarks and style-controlled evaluations that set it apart from Gemini 3 variants and prior Claude releases. This market-implied consensus reflects verified capability edges in large language model tasks, including improved context handling and output quality, amid ongoing competition among labs like Anthropic, Google, and others. While the strong positioning leaves limited room for reversal before resolution, credible new model launches, updated third-party benchmarks, or shifts in evaluation criteria could still alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
거래량
$38,961종료일
2026.05.30마켓 개설일
May 22, 2026, 12:53 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...결과 제안됨: Yes
이의 없음
최종 결과: Yes
Traders have coalesced around claude-opus-4-6-thinking as the leading AI model, driven by its recent demonstrated gains in advanced reasoning benchmarks and style-controlled evaluations that set it apart from Gemini 3 variants and prior Claude releases. This market-implied consensus reflects verified capability edges in large language model tasks, including improved context handling and output quality, amid ongoing competition among labs like Anthropic, Google, and others. While the strong positioning leaves limited room for reversal before resolution, credible new model launches, updated third-party benchmarks, or shifts in evaluation criteria could still alter the outcome.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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