Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors no change in ECB key interest rates at the April 29, 2026, Governing Council monetary policy meeting, with 96.8% implied probability, driven by the bank's March 19 decision to hold the deposit facility rate steady at 2% amid surging headline inflation to 2.6% in March from 1.9% in February. This uptick, fueled by energy price shocks from the Iran conflict, prompted ECB staff to revise 2026 inflation forecasts higher to 2.6%, signaling a hawkish "higher-for-longer" stance without immediate hikes. President Lagarde's April 14 remarks emphasized data-dependent flexibility between baseline and adverse scenarios. Realistic challenges include further oil-driven inflation persistence prompting a rate increase, or an unexpected eurozone growth collapse reviving cut odds, though both remain low-probability amid vigilant monitoring.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트변동 없음 96.6%
인상 3.4%
25bp 인하 <1%
50bp 이상 인하 <1%
$623,277 거래량
$623,277 거래량
2026.04.30
50bp 이상 인하
<1%
25bp 인하
<1%
변동 없음
97%
인상
3%
변동 없음 96.6%
인상 3.4%
25bp 인하 <1%
50bp 이상 인하 <1%
$623,277 거래량
$623,277 거래량
2026.04.30
50bp 이상 인하
$105,144 거래량
<1%
25bp 인하
$97,875 거래량
<1%
변동 없음
$200,423 거래량
97%
인상
$221,124 거래량
3%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) April 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its April 30, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the April 30, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors no change in ECB key interest rates at the April 29, 2026, Governing Council monetary policy meeting, with 96.8% implied probability, driven by the bank's March 19 decision to hold the deposit facility rate steady at 2% amid surging headline inflation to 2.6% in March from 1.9% in February. This uptick, fueled by energy price shocks from the Iran conflict, prompted ECB staff to revise 2026 inflation forecasts higher to 2.6%, signaling a hawkish "higher-for-longer" stance without immediate hikes. President Lagarde's April 14 remarks emphasized data-dependent flexibility between baseline and adverse scenarios. Realistic challenges include further oil-driven inflation persistence prompting a rate increase, or an unexpected eurozone growth collapse reviving cut odds, though both remain low-probability amid vigilant monitoring.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) April 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its April 30, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the April 30, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its April 30, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the April 30, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
마켓 개설일: Feb 6, 2026, 3:52 PM ET
거래량
$623,277종료일
2026.04.30마켓 개설일
Feb 6, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) April 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its April 30, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the April 30, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors no change in ECB key interest rates at the April 29, 2026, Governing Council monetary policy meeting, with 96.8% implied probability, driven by the bank's March 19 decision to hold the deposit facility rate steady at 2% amid surging headline inflation to 2.6% in March from 1.9% in February. This uptick, fueled by energy price shocks from the Iran conflict, prompted ECB staff to revise 2026 inflation forecasts higher to 2.6%, signaling a hawkish "higher-for-longer" stance without immediate hikes. President Lagarde's April 14 remarks emphasized data-dependent flexibility between baseline and adverse scenarios. Realistic challenges include further oil-driven inflation persistence prompting a rate increase, or an unexpected eurozone growth collapse reviving cut odds, though both remain low-probability amid vigilant monitoring.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) April 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its April 30, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the April 30, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its April 30, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the April 30, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
거래량
$623,277종료일
2026.04.30마켓 개설일
Feb 6, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors no change in ECB key interest rates at the April 29, 2026, Governing Council monetary policy meeting, with 96.8% implied probability, driven by the bank's March 19 decision to hold the deposit facility rate steady at 2% amid surging headline inflation to 2.6% in March from 1.9% in February. This uptick, fueled by energy price shocks from the Iran conflict, prompted ECB staff to revise 2026 inflation forecasts higher to 2.6%, signaling a hawkish "higher-for-longer" stance without immediate hikes. President Lagarde's April 14 remarks emphasized data-dependent flexibility between baseline and adverse scenarios. Realistic challenges include further oil-driven inflation persistence prompting a rate increase, or an unexpected eurozone growth collapse reviving cut odds, though both remain low-probability amid vigilant monitoring.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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