Recent Middle East geopolitical tensions have driven energy price surges, lifting euro-area headline inflation to 3.2% in May 2026 and elevating short-term inflation expectations. This has prompted the ECB to signal a data-dependent tightening path after holding its deposit facility rate at 2.00% following the April meeting. Market-implied odds reflect broad trader consensus on a 25-basis-point hike at the June 10-11 gathering as the most likely response to contain second-round effects amid resilient labor conditions and upwardly revised staff projections. A durable decline in energy costs or rapid de-escalation could still shift the outlook toward a hold, though incoming data releases will determine whether the implied probability remains anchored near current levels.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트25 bps Increase 96.8%
No change 3.4%
50+ bps increase <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$667,760 거래량
$667,760 거래량
2026.06.11
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
3%
25 bps Increase
97%
50+ bps increase
<1%
25 bps Increase 96.8%
No change 3.4%
50+ bps increase <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$667,760 거래량
$667,760 거래량
2026.06.11
50+ bps decrease
$104,106 거래량
<1%
25 bps decrease
$116,081 거래량
<1%
No change
$152,274 거래량
3%
25 bps Increase
$157,831 거래량
97%
50+ bps increase
$137,468 거래량
<1%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Recent Middle East geopolitical tensions have driven energy price surges, lifting euro-area headline inflation to 3.2% in May 2026 and elevating short-term inflation expectations. This has prompted the ECB to signal a data-dependent tightening path after holding its deposit facility rate at 2.00% following the April meeting. Market-implied odds reflect broad trader consensus on a 25-basis-point hike at the June 10-11 gathering as the most likely response to contain second-round effects amid resilient labor conditions and upwardly revised staff projections. A durable decline in energy costs or rapid de-escalation could still shift the outlook toward a hold, though incoming data releases will determine whether the implied probability remains anchored near current levels.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
마켓 개설일: Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
거래량
$667,760종료일
2026.06.11마켓 개설일
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Recent Middle East geopolitical tensions have driven energy price surges, lifting euro-area headline inflation to 3.2% in May 2026 and elevating short-term inflation expectations. This has prompted the ECB to signal a data-dependent tightening path after holding its deposit facility rate at 2.00% following the April meeting. Market-implied odds reflect broad trader consensus on a 25-basis-point hike at the June 10-11 gathering as the most likely response to contain second-round effects amid resilient labor conditions and upwardly revised staff projections. A durable decline in energy costs or rapid de-escalation could still shift the outlook toward a hold, though incoming data releases will determine whether the implied probability remains anchored near current levels.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
거래량
$667,760종료일
2026.06.11마켓 개설일
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Middle East geopolitical tensions have driven energy price surges, lifting euro-area headline inflation to 3.2% in May 2026 and elevating short-term inflation expectations. This has prompted the ECB to signal a data-dependent tightening path after holding its deposit facility rate at 2.00% following the April meeting. Market-implied odds reflect broad trader consensus on a 25-basis-point hike at the June 10-11 gathering as the most likely response to contain second-round effects amid resilient labor conditions and upwardly revised staff projections. A durable decline in energy costs or rapid de-escalation could still shift the outlook toward a hold, though incoming data releases will determine whether the implied probability remains anchored near current levels.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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