Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 66% implied probability for a 25 basis point hike to 1.00% at the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting, up from no-change odds at 24%, driven by persistent underlying inflation trends and wage momentum despite headwinds. Governor Ueda's April 13 remarks highlighted vigilance on Middle East tensions—protracting the Iran conflict and spiking oil prices—cooling April hike bets after the March 18-19 hold at 0.75%, where real rates remain negative and financial conditions accommodative. Tokyo core CPI eased to 1.7% in March amid yen weakness near USD/JPY 160, yet BOJ views core-core inflation exceeding 2%, supporting gradual normalization. The April 26-27 meeting looms as a pivotal signal for June's path.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트25bp 인상 71.6%
변경 없음 29%
금리 인하 2.5%
50bp 이상 인상 2.5%
$31,210 거래량
$31,210 거래량
2026.06.16
금리 인하
2%
변경 없음
27%
25bp 인상
66%
50bp 이상 인상
2%
25bp 인상 71.6%
변경 없음 29%
금리 인하 2.5%
50bp 이상 인상 2.5%
$31,210 거래량
$31,210 거래량
2026.06.16
금리 인하
$18,554 거래량
2%
변경 없음
$8,442 거래량
27%
25bp 인상
$3,334 거래량
66%
50bp 이상 인상
$881 거래량
2%
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for June is scheduled to be released on June 16, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 66% implied probability for a 25 basis point hike to 1.00% at the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting, up from no-change odds at 24%, driven by persistent underlying inflation trends and wage momentum despite headwinds. Governor Ueda's April 13 remarks highlighted vigilance on Middle East tensions—protracting the Iran conflict and spiking oil prices—cooling April hike bets after the March 18-19 hold at 0.75%, where real rates remain negative and financial conditions accommodative. Tokyo core CPI eased to 1.7% in March amid yen weakness near USD/JPY 160, yet BOJ views core-core inflation exceeding 2%, supporting gradual normalization. The April 26-27 meeting looms as a pivotal signal for June's path.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for June is scheduled to be released on June 16, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
마켓 개설일: Mar 19, 2026, 7:12 PM ET
거래량
$31,210종료일
2026.06.16마켓 개설일
Mar 19, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for June is scheduled to be released on June 16, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 66% implied probability for a 25 basis point hike to 1.00% at the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting, up from no-change odds at 24%, driven by persistent underlying inflation trends and wage momentum despite headwinds. Governor Ueda's April 13 remarks highlighted vigilance on Middle East tensions—protracting the Iran conflict and spiking oil prices—cooling April hike bets after the March 18-19 hold at 0.75%, where real rates remain negative and financial conditions accommodative. Tokyo core CPI eased to 1.7% in March amid yen weakness near USD/JPY 160, yet BOJ views core-core inflation exceeding 2%, supporting gradual normalization. The April 26-27 meeting looms as a pivotal signal for June's path.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for June is scheduled to be released on June 16, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
거래량
$31,210종료일
2026.06.16마켓 개설일
Mar 19, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 66% implied probability for a 25 basis point hike to 1.00% at the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting, up from no-change odds at 24%, driven by persistent underlying inflation trends and wage momentum despite headwinds. Governor Ueda's April 13 remarks highlighted vigilance on Middle East tensions—protracting the Iran conflict and spiking oil prices—cooling April hike bets after the March 18-19 hold at 0.75%, where real rates remain negative and financial conditions accommodative. Tokyo core CPI eased to 1.7% in March amid yen weakness near USD/JPY 160, yet BOJ views core-core inflation exceeding 2%, supporting gradual normalization. The April 26-27 meeting looms as a pivotal signal for June's path.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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