Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors no change in ECB key interest rates at the April 30, 2026, Governing Council monetary policy meeting, reflecting a recent ceasefire in the Iran conflict that has tempered oil-driven inflation pressures after March's surge to 2.5% from energy shocks. ECB President Lagarde's April 14 remarks emphasized data-dependence without committing to hikes, while March projections anticipated subdued 2026 growth at 0.9% and inflation averaging above target into 2027, yet stabilizing energy costs have reinforced the higher-for-longer baseline without immediate action. Scenarios challenging this include renewed geopolitical tensions spiking oil prices, hotter-than-expected flash Eurozone inflation or PMI data ahead of the decision, or unexpectedly persistent core inflation trends.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트변동 없음 96.2%
인상 3.9%
50bp 이상 인하 <1%
25bp 인하 <1%
$615,584 거래량
$615,584 거래량
2026.04.30
50bp 이상 인하
<1%
25bp 인하
<1%
변동 없음
96%
인상
4%
변동 없음 96.2%
인상 3.9%
50bp 이상 인하 <1%
25bp 인하 <1%
$615,584 거래량
$615,584 거래량
2026.04.30
50bp 이상 인하
$102,965 거래량
<1%
25bp 인하
$96,047 거래량
<1%
변동 없음
$198,716 거래량
96%
인상
$217,855 거래량
4%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) April 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its April 30, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the April 30, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors no change in ECB key interest rates at the April 30, 2026, Governing Council monetary policy meeting, reflecting a recent ceasefire in the Iran conflict that has tempered oil-driven inflation pressures after March's surge to 2.5% from energy shocks. ECB President Lagarde's April 14 remarks emphasized data-dependence without committing to hikes, while March projections anticipated subdued 2026 growth at 0.9% and inflation averaging above target into 2027, yet stabilizing energy costs have reinforced the higher-for-longer baseline without immediate action. Scenarios challenging this include renewed geopolitical tensions spiking oil prices, hotter-than-expected flash Eurozone inflation or PMI data ahead of the decision, or unexpectedly persistent core inflation trends.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) April 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its April 30, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the April 30, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its April 30, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the April 30, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
마켓 개설일: Feb 6, 2026, 3:52 PM ET
거래량
$615,584종료일
2026.04.30마켓 개설일
Feb 6, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) April 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its April 30, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the April 30, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors no change in ECB key interest rates at the April 30, 2026, Governing Council monetary policy meeting, reflecting a recent ceasefire in the Iran conflict that has tempered oil-driven inflation pressures after March's surge to 2.5% from energy shocks. ECB President Lagarde's April 14 remarks emphasized data-dependence without committing to hikes, while March projections anticipated subdued 2026 growth at 0.9% and inflation averaging above target into 2027, yet stabilizing energy costs have reinforced the higher-for-longer baseline without immediate action. Scenarios challenging this include renewed geopolitical tensions spiking oil prices, hotter-than-expected flash Eurozone inflation or PMI data ahead of the decision, or unexpectedly persistent core inflation trends.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) April 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its April 30, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the April 30, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its April 30, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the April 30, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
거래량
$615,584종료일
2026.04.30마켓 개설일
Feb 6, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors no change in ECB key interest rates at the April 30, 2026, Governing Council monetary policy meeting, reflecting a recent ceasefire in the Iran conflict that has tempered oil-driven inflation pressures after March's surge to 2.5% from energy shocks. ECB President Lagarde's April 14 remarks emphasized data-dependence without committing to hikes, while March projections anticipated subdued 2026 growth at 0.9% and inflation averaging above target into 2027, yet stabilizing energy costs have reinforced the higher-for-longer baseline without immediate action. Scenarios challenging this include renewed geopolitical tensions spiking oil prices, hotter-than-expected flash Eurozone inflation or PMI data ahead of the decision, or unexpectedly persistent core inflation trends.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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