Official forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and supporting global models indicate a daily maximum of 25°C for Shanghai on June 9, driving the near-certain market-implied outcome. Early June climatology features average highs near 26–28°C amid the transition to the East Asian summer monsoon, with current conditions—overcast skies, moderate humidity, and limited solar heating—aligning closely with this threshold. Ensemble predictions show tight agreement around this value, with minimal spread from steering patterns or localized convection. Final official observations will resolve the market, though minor revisions from measurement timing or microclimate effects remain possible but unlikely to shift the peak materially.