Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain implied probability to a highest temperature of 28°C in Shenzhen today, anchored by the Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau's latest forecast of persistent overcast skies and southeast winds at force 2-3, capping the diurnal temperature range amid high humidity levels above 80%. Current METAR observations from Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport—the market's resolution source—confirm morning temperatures of 23–25°C under overcast conditions (OVC026), limiting solar heating in this early-May subtropical climate where monthly average highs hover near 29.5°C. International models like AccuWeather project 29°C, but traders factor in standard rounding and reduced insolation for the official 28°C peak. A realistic challenge would require unexpected afternoon clearing to enhance shortwave radiation, potentially nudging the high to 29°C before evening; hourly airport updates through sunset will confirm.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트Highest temperature in Shenzhen on May 11?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on May 11?
28°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$52,348 거래량
$52,348 거래량
2026.05.11
21°C or below
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
Yes
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C or higher
No
28°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$52,348 거래량
$52,348 거래량
2026.05.11
21°C or below
$175 거래량
No
22°C
$290 거래량
No
23°C
$1,320 거래량
No
24°C
$1,143 거래량
No
25°C
$1,202 거래량
No
26°C
$13,436 거래량
No
27°C
$7,726 거래량
No
28°C
$8,346 거래량
Yes
29°C
$6,834 거래량
No
30°C
$7,243 거래량
No
31°C or higher
$4,633 거래량
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain implied probability to a highest temperature of 28°C in Shenzhen today, anchored by the Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau's latest forecast of persistent overcast skies and southeast winds at force 2-3, capping the diurnal temperature range amid high humidity levels above 80%. Current METAR observations from Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport—the market's resolution source—confirm morning temperatures of 23–25°C under overcast conditions (OVC026), limiting solar heating in this early-May subtropical climate where monthly average highs hover near 29.5°C. International models like AccuWeather project 29°C, but traders factor in standard rounding and reduced insolation for the official 28°C peak. A realistic challenge would require unexpected afternoon clearing to enhance shortwave radiation, potentially nudging the high to 29°C before evening; hourly airport updates through sunset will confirm.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
마켓 개설일: May 9, 2026, 2:38 AM ET
거래량
$52,348종료일
2026.05.11마켓 개설일
May 9, 2026, 2:38 AM ET결과 제안됨: No
이의 없음
최종 결과: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain implied probability to a highest temperature of 28°C in Shenzhen today, anchored by the Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau's latest forecast of persistent overcast skies and southeast winds at force 2-3, capping the diurnal temperature range amid high humidity levels above 80%. Current METAR observations from Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport—the market's resolution source—confirm morning temperatures of 23–25°C under overcast conditions (OVC026), limiting solar heating in this early-May subtropical climate where monthly average highs hover near 29.5°C. International models like AccuWeather project 29°C, but traders factor in standard rounding and reduced insolation for the official 28°C peak. A realistic challenge would require unexpected afternoon clearing to enhance shortwave radiation, potentially nudging the high to 29°C before evening; hourly airport updates through sunset will confirm.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
거래량
$52,348종료일
2026.05.11마켓 개설일
May 9, 2026, 2:38 AM ET결과 제안됨: No
이의 없음
최종 결과: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain implied probability to a highest temperature of 28°C in Shenzhen today, anchored by the Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau's latest forecast of persistent overcast skies and southeast winds at force 2-3, capping the diurnal temperature range amid high humidity levels above 80%. Current METAR observations from Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport—the market's resolution source—confirm morning temperatures of 23–25°C under overcast conditions (OVC026), limiting solar heating in this early-May subtropical climate where monthly average highs hover near 29.5°C. International models like AccuWeather project 29°C, but traders factor in standard rounding and reduced insolation for the official 28°C peak. A realistic challenge would require unexpected afternoon clearing to enhance shortwave radiation, potentially nudging the high to 29°C before evening; hourly airport updates through sunset will confirm.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문