The 10-year Treasury yield stands at 4.29% as of April 15, 2026, after dipping to 4.26% mid-week amid volatility, but rebounding on March CPI's hotter-than-expected 3.3% year-over-year rise—fueled by a 10.9% gasoline surge from oil price gains and geopolitical risks. This has tempered Fed rate cut bets, aligning with the March dot plot's median fed funds projection of 3.4% by year-end 2026 amid 4.3% unemployment and modest +178,000 nonfarm payrolls. Polymarket trader consensus, backed by $213,000 in volume, prices strong odds of dipping below 4.0% before 2027, but fades below 3.8% due to persistent inflation pressures. Watch the April 28-29 FOMC and May 12 CPI for shifts in the easing path.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$213,121 거래량
2026.12.31
3.9%
73%
3.8%
51%
3.7%
43%
3.6%
42%
3.5%
33%
3.0%
22%
2.0%
12%
1.0%
5%
$213,121 거래량
3.9%
$40,051 거래량
73%
3.8%
$39,095 거래량
51%
3.7%
$26,270 거래량
43%
3.6%
$4,723 거래량
42%
3.5%
$31,386 거래량
33%
3.0%
$277 거래량
22%
2.0%
$326 거래량
12%
1.0%
$39,233 거래량
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield stands at 4.29% as of April 15, 2026, after dipping to 4.26% mid-week amid volatility, but rebounding on March CPI's hotter-than-expected 3.3% year-over-year rise—fueled by a 10.9% gasoline surge from oil price gains and geopolitical risks. This has tempered Fed rate cut bets, aligning with the March dot plot's median fed funds projection of 3.4% by year-end 2026 amid 4.3% unemployment and modest +178,000 nonfarm payrolls. Polymarket trader consensus, backed by $213,000 in volume, prices strong odds of dipping below 4.0% before 2027, but fades below 3.8% due to persistent inflation pressures. Watch the April 28-29 FOMC and May 12 CPI for shifts in the easing path.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
마켓 개설일: Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ET
거래량
$213,121종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield stands at 4.29% as of April 15, 2026, after dipping to 4.26% mid-week amid volatility, but rebounding on March CPI's hotter-than-expected 3.3% year-over-year rise—fueled by a 10.9% gasoline surge from oil price gains and geopolitical risks. This has tempered Fed rate cut bets, aligning with the March dot plot's median fed funds projection of 3.4% by year-end 2026 amid 4.3% unemployment and modest +178,000 nonfarm payrolls. Polymarket trader consensus, backed by $213,000 in volume, prices strong odds of dipping below 4.0% before 2027, but fades below 3.8% due to persistent inflation pressures. Watch the April 28-29 FOMC and May 12 CPI for shifts in the easing path.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
거래량
$213,121종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 10-year Treasury yield stands at 4.29% as of April 15, 2026, after dipping to 4.26% mid-week amid volatility, but rebounding on March CPI's hotter-than-expected 3.3% year-over-year rise—fueled by a 10.9% gasoline surge from oil price gains and geopolitical risks. This has tempered Fed rate cut bets, aligning with the March dot plot's median fed funds projection of 3.4% by year-end 2026 amid 4.3% unemployment and modest +178,000 nonfarm payrolls. Polymarket trader consensus, backed by $213,000 in volume, prices strong odds of dipping below 4.0% before 2027, but fades below 3.8% due to persistent inflation pressures. Watch the April 28-29 FOMC and May 12 CPI for shifts in the easing path.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문